{ "ticker": { "uuid": "df7e4e7f-1b35-4969-8bda-5c4ae5edc64f", "symbol": "RNRU", "name": "Global X Renewable Energy Producers UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -42.861, "architecture_energy": 57.923, "architecture_maturity": 12.506, "architecture_confidence": 69.82, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.39, "rotation_up": 17.48, "upward_expansion": 19.35, "deceleration": 47.39, "rotation_down": 71.28, "downward_expansion": 61.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.437233, 9.6002, 9.906181, 9.950533 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 9.364, "trend_reference": 9.92295, "distance_from_trend": -0.056329, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.24767, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.135351, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.152144, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.019425, "excess_performance": -0.07066, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.056329, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031999, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.135351, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130307, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.071521, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.205543, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.019425, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.090198, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9022, "relative_activity": 0.537755, "balance": 1.090198, "dry_up": 0.936363, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03688, "annualized_volatility": 0.175002, "from_high_reference": -0.137436, "from_low_reference": 0.251872 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.92295, "fair_value_reference": 8.24767, "structural_low": 8.936, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, 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"2024-11-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.053258, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.030206, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039569, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.061898, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.324377, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041131, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation 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"typical_volume": 15948.45, "trend": 9.87925, "fair_value": 8.243885, "relative_strength": -2.224245, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.227219, "energy": 63.183029, "activity_lines": [ 9.664367, 9.912636, 10.09124, 10.038646 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.7885, "volume": 3806, "typical_volume": 15456.8, "trend": 9.911333, "fair_value": 8.245872, "relative_strength": -1.445782, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.468031, "energy": 57.61174, "activity_lines": [ 9.680967, 9.855791, 10.061876, 10.032791 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.1885, "volume": 34757, "typical_volume": 16592.4, "trend": 9.916167, "fair_value": 8.245699, "relative_strength": -8.598181, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -56.272978, "energy": 68.033856, "activity_lines": [ 9.5071, 9.7005, 9.974598, 9.986157 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.364, "volume": 9022, "typical_volume": 16777.15, "trend": 9.92295, "fair_value": 8.24767, "relative_strength": -7.152144, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.861071, "energy": 57.923309, "activity_lines": [ 9.437233, 9.6002, 9.906181, 9.950533 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }