{ "ticker": { "uuid": "df7ebcd9-3c13-44d6-bd86-d41276bbb1b2", "symbol": "TEC", "name": "TD Global Technology Leaders Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.415, "architecture_energy": 34.771, "architecture_maturity": 65.844, "architecture_confidence": 88.488, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.08, "rotation_up": 38.68, "upward_expansion": 61.68, "deceleration": 85.35, "rotation_down": 27.18, "downward_expansion": 20.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 60.262, 60.299273, 59.605166, 57.636333 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 62.189999, "trend_reference": 55.350833, "distance_from_trend": 0.12356, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 43.783601, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.420395, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.11368, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.226627, "excess_performance": 0.106206, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.12356, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042823, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.420395, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011257, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.021137, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010577, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.226627, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.111942, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 370400, "relative_activity": 0.891113, "balance": 2.111942, "dry_up": 1.019944, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04109, "annualized_volatility": 0.228019, "from_high_reference": -0.013014, "from_low_reference": 0.348146 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 55.350833, "fair_value_reference": 43.783601, "structural_low": 46.130001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.011518, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.01247, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.095032, "worst_return": -0.094705, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.023734, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.015724, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.173576, "worst_return": -0.091536, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.10212, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.003047, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.201338, "worst_return": -0.112563, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.090419, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.12247, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.093428, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.137381, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.089505, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-13", 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"2026-07-03", "close": 61.009998, "volume": 93900, "typical_volume": 402895.0, "trend": 54.207412, "fair_value": 42.780017, "relative_strength": 3.021407, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.828855, "energy": 57.171147, "activity_lines": [ 60.478666, 60.308363, 57.626428, 55.851299 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 61.889999, "volume": 418900, "typical_volume": 408775.0, "trend": 54.5101, "fair_value": 42.989996, "relative_strength": 4.323895, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.088881, "energy": 60.284335, "activity_lines": [ 60.989999, 60.697272, 58.279642, 56.34695 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 59.240002, "volume": 575100, "typical_volume": 413555.0, "trend": 54.713795, "fair_value": 43.185414, "relative_strength": 0.062631, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.446268, "energy": 43.551831, "activity_lines": [ 60.472, 60.491273, 58.626143, 56.652105 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 58.389999, "volume": 325700, "typical_volume": 408730.0, "trend": 54.8775, "fair_value": 43.370722, "relative_strength": -1.547777, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.518639, "energy": 37.121466, "activity_lines": [ 59.706666, 60.123636, 58.846595, 56.889279 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 59.360001, "volume": 424600, "typical_volume": 413200.0, "trend": 55.093167, "fair_value": 43.566845, "relative_strength": 0.583792, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.407776, "energy": 28.955976, "activity_lines": [ 59.524667, 59.948, 59.115714, 57.178473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 62.189999, "volume": 370400, "typical_volume": 415660.0, "trend": 55.350833, "fair_value": 43.783601, "relative_strength": 2.11368, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.414768, "energy": 34.771057, "activity_lines": [ 60.262, 60.299273, 59.605166, 57.636333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }