{ "ticker": { "uuid": "df7fde20-c143-46ff-aa4f-3a7e9d443a65", "symbol": "01007T", "name": "Cathay No.2 REIT", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -95.751, "architecture_energy": 77.675, "architecture_maturity": 50.905, "architecture_confidence": 59.768, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 2.08, "rotation_up": 9.29, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 49.37, "rotation_down": 89.02, "downward_expansion": 90.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.125333, 12.279818, 12.499679, 12.668384 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 11.84, "trend_reference": 12.892141, "distance_from_trend": -0.081611, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.520116, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.18458, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.277887, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.11877, "excess_performance": -0.498081, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.081611, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022285, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.18458, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062693, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.352779, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029554, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.11877, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2012000, "relative_activity": 1.951551, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 3.551251, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014849, "annualized_volatility": 0.060186, "from_high_reference": -0.159342, "from_low_reference": 0.00339 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.892141, "fair_value_reference": 14.520116, "structural_low": 11.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": -0.006452, "positive_rate": 0.302326, "directional_follow_through": 0.697674, "median_excess_return": -0.033276, "regime_survival": 0.883721, "best_return": 0.027896, "worst_return": -0.047466, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.012009, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.069747, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.024021, "worst_return": -0.060091, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.025782, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.148117, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.036934, "worst_return": -0.058234, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.314647, "energy": 75.245259, "activity_lines": [ 12.418, 12.517273, 12.693533, 12.833239 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.25, "volume": 8223000, "typical_volume": 853424.65, "trend": 12.957985, "fair_value": 14.567567, "relative_strength": -34.184981, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.994455, "energy": 75.498848, "activity_lines": [ 12.344667, 12.453455, 12.637824, 12.785689 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.23, "volume": 2327000, "typical_volume": 944674.65, "trend": 12.930251, "fair_value": 14.543774, "relative_strength": -32.486182, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.8489, "energy": 70.727739, "activity_lines": [ 12.288667, 12.397091, 12.585482, 12.738722 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.84, "volume": 2012000, "typical_volume": 1030974.65, "trend": 12.892141, "fair_value": 14.520116, "relative_strength": -35.277887, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -95.751201, "energy": 77.675484, "activity_lines": [ 12.125333, 12.279818, 12.499679, 12.668384 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }