{ "ticker": { "uuid": "df885e3e-965a-45e3-877d-8fde6b004e78", "symbol": "KSM-F171", "name": "KSM Mutual Funds Ltd. - KSM ETF (4A) MSCI AC World Dollar Hedged", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.193, "architecture_energy": 63.333, "architecture_maturity": 97.0, "architecture_confidence": 62.188, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.37, "rotation_up": 27.99, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 49.8, "downward_expansion": 70.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.652, 49.472182, 1061.554143, 1934.922086 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 50.7, "trend_reference": 2946.601333, "distance_from_trend": -0.982794, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3564.500256, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.985776, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.738135, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.988886, "excess_performance": -1.017787, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.982794, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.333654, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.985776, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.288812, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.987381, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.839877, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.988886, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.131751, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 58328, "relative_activity": 1.027479, "balance": 1.131751, "dry_up": 0.927088, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.487422, "annualized_volatility": 6.352315, "from_high_reference": -0.989699, "from_low_reference": 0.051867 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2946.601333, "fair_value_reference": 3564.500256, "structural_low": 48.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.005218, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.009858, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.097163, "worst_return": -0.076969, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.017541, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.05072, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.158924, "worst_return": -0.073902, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.059752, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.046729, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.242493, "worst_return": -0.142239, "sufficient": false }, { 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.320116, "energy": 68.480617, "activity_lines": [ 49.214667, 311.333455, 1782.646381, 2553.740086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 48.75, "volume": 65052, "typical_volume": 75940.2, "trend": 3246.563, "fair_value": 3603.723654, "relative_strength": -98.873049, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.222685, "energy": 68.260086, "activity_lines": [ 49.036667, 136.394545, 1520.945714, 2337.732258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.45, "volume": 35665, "typical_volume": 65008.05, "trend": 3097.144667, "fair_value": 3584.162436, "relative_strength": -98.797238, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.748492, "energy": 67.488724, "activity_lines": [ 49.165333, 49.223818, 1280.708143, 2131.466903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.7, "volume": 58328, "typical_volume": 56768.05, "trend": 2946.601333, "fair_value": 3564.500256, "relative_strength": -98.738135, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.193173, "energy": 63.333384, "activity_lines": [ 49.652, 49.472182, 1061.554143, 1934.922086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }