{ "ticker": { "uuid": "df89a7dd-2d2e-4f94-80dc-4fe30c25dafb", "symbol": "ZAG", "name": "Zumtobel Group AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.58, "architecture_energy": 24.246, "architecture_maturity": 27.811, "architecture_confidence": 52.163, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.72, "rotation_up": 43.94, "upward_expansion": 67.38, "deceleration": 60.55, "rotation_down": 18.55, "downward_expansion": 8.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.003333, 4.005636, 3.907667, 3.892731 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.04, "trend_reference": 3.864333, "distance_from_trend": 0.045458, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.745368, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.148643, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.132144, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.120666, "excess_performance": -0.053581, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045458, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04971, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.148643, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.122542, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.141321, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10376, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.120666, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.886743, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 84995, "relative_activity": 0.883204, "balance": 1.886743, "dry_up": 1.183163, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064166, "annualized_volatility": 0.304206, "from_high_reference": -0.095185, "from_low_reference": 0.25661 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.864333, "fair_value_reference": 4.745368, "structural_low": 3.46, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.011111, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.011336, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.11758, "worst_return": -0.084507, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.04699, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.009281, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.064272, "worst_return": -0.198376, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.053981, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.209823, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.085169, "worst_return": -0.182072, "sufficient": false 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.86, "volume": 96104, "typical_volume": 107172.55, "trend": 3.795333, "fair_value": 4.815257, "relative_strength": -19.025914, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.617908, "energy": 49.281068, "activity_lines": [ 4.000667, 3.940182, 3.851429, 3.847763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.9, "volume": 123144, "typical_volume": 104871.45, "trend": 3.810833, "fair_value": 4.796824, "relative_strength": -15.676535, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.97277, "energy": 14.985486, "activity_lines": [ 3.946667, 3.949455, 3.8545, 3.854516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.97, "volume": 138066, "typical_volume": 98496.9, "trend": 3.829167, "fair_value": 4.777943, "relative_strength": -14.476411, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.661258, "energy": 16.762381, "activity_lines": [ 3.932, 3.966182, 3.865667, 3.864785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.07, "volume": 109241, "typical_volume": 97038.4, "trend": 3.847667, "fair_value": 4.761899, "relative_strength": -11.559867, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.80879, "energy": 20.275276, "activity_lines": [ 3.975333, 3.993273, 3.887952, 3.880323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.04, "volume": 84995, "typical_volume": 96234.8, "trend": 3.864333, "fair_value": 4.745368, "relative_strength": -14.132144, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.580058, "energy": 24.245806, "activity_lines": [ 4.003333, 4.005636, 3.907667, 3.892731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }