{ "ticker": { "uuid": "df8a9c51-bd43-47c2-ba4c-4de947f4bdc2", "symbol": "IRCTC", "name": "Indian Railway Catering & Tourism Corporation Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.798, "architecture_energy": 46.122, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.574, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.55, "rotation_up": 23.49, "upward_expansion": 6.27, "deceleration": 53.57, "rotation_down": 55.95, "downward_expansion": 81.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 504.143335, 506.811815, 516.379997, 525.908405 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 519.950012, "trend_reference": 545.565656, "distance_from_trend": -0.046952, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 748.683257, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.305514, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.710807, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.156679, "excess_performance": -0.11297, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.046952, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093647, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.305514, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051682, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.137108, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011863, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.156679, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.482227, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7011493, "relative_activity": 1.608664, "balance": 0.482227, "dry_up": 1.109291, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036416, "annualized_volatility": 0.283454, "from_high_reference": -0.28741, "from_low_reference": 0.071399 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 545.565656, "fair_value_reference": 748.683257, "structural_low": 485.299988, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.027241, "positive_rate": 0.482759, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": -0.019209, "regime_survival": 0.896552, "best_return": 0.130527, "worst_return": -0.189757, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.014937, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.070329, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.183463, "worst_return": -0.259317, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.03412, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.071745, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.078983, "worst_return": -0.26735, "sufficient": 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"energy": 70.038196, "activity_lines": [ 503.133329, 509.325446, 520.021424, 532.069111 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 490.0, "volume": 3673645, "typical_volume": 4413057.5, "trend": 549.370738, "fair_value": 749.453985, "relative_strength": -18.56413, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.259202, "energy": 72.907789, "activity_lines": [ 497.843331, 504.979993, 516.684995, 527.806516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 519.950012, "volume": 7011493, "typical_volume": 4358580.85, "trend": 545.565656, "fair_value": 748.683257, "relative_strength": -13.710807, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.798446, "energy": 46.122448, "activity_lines": [ 504.143335, 506.811815, 516.379997, 525.908405 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }