{ "ticker": { "uuid": "df8d9e55-e05b-43e7-9551-e03d8dbc9793", "symbol": "AIM", "name": "Aimia Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 54.954, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.008, "architecture_energy": 40.523, "architecture_maturity": 4.511, "architecture_confidence": 84.801, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.64, "rotation_up": 18.75, "upward_expansion": 13.55, "deceleration": 34.81, "rotation_down": 58.24, "downward_expansion": 77.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.678, 2.718182, 2.734714, 2.760753 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 2.8, "trend_reference": 2.818, "distance_from_trend": -0.006388, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.814487, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.005147, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.961572, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.084967, "excess_performance": -0.205389, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006388, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004358, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.005147, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058323, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.139616, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046002, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.084967, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.140159, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 206800, "relative_activity": 0.880675, "balance": 1.140159, "dry_up": 1.587173, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058791, "annualized_volatility": 0.272266, "from_high_reference": -0.186047, "from_low_reference": 0.129032 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.818, "fair_value_reference": 2.814487, "structural_low": 2.48, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.02514, "positive_rate": 0.580645, "directional_follow_through": 0.419355, "median_excess_return": 0.019514, "regime_survival": 0.677419, "best_return": 0.165541, "worst_return": -0.13913, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.025078, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.024013, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.171831, "worst_return": -0.139053, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.017857, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.119039, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.165049, "worst_return": -0.200893, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.105178, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.177924, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.121569, "worst_return": -0.192893, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.143911, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029167, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.07874, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.061372, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward 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4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.048857, "energy": 11.719816, "activity_lines": [ 2.828, 2.801455, 2.777905, 2.80671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.61, "volume": 461400, "typical_volume": 207060.0, "trend": 2.828, "fair_value": 2.825897, "relative_strength": -19.194403, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.348088, "energy": 19.161685, "activity_lines": [ 2.762667, 2.771455, 2.761, 2.792237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.61, "volume": 562800, "typical_volume": 224070.0, "trend": 2.822667, "fair_value": 2.821346, "relative_strength": -18.807863, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.116033, "energy": 32.430193, "activity_lines": [ 2.708, 2.742909, 2.746, 2.778172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.57, "volume": 259800, "typical_volume": 231700.0, "trend": 2.817333, "fair_value": 2.817308, "relative_strength": -19.03743, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.559814, "energy": 57.256385, "activity_lines": [ 2.649333, 2.708545, 2.728762, 2.761871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.8, "volume": 206800, "typical_volume": 234820.0, "trend": 2.818, "fair_value": 2.814487, "relative_strength": -13.961572, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.008048, "energy": 40.523124, "activity_lines": [ 2.678, 2.718182, 2.734714, 2.760753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }