{ "ticker": { "uuid": "df995250-794a-4eb8-8bbc-37f8af4ba972", "symbol": "2390", "name": "Everspring Industry Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.626, "architecture_energy": 28.287, "architecture_maturity": 51.643, "architecture_confidence": 61.8, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.01, "rotation_up": 16.9, "upward_expansion": 17.5, "deceleration": 68.75, "rotation_down": 64.01, "downward_expansion": 42.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.496667, 11.150909, 11.185714, 10.971118 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.25, "trend_reference": 10.743333, "distance_from_trend": -0.04592, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.144231, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.155978, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -30.1213, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.004854, "excess_performance": -0.446226, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.04592, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062609, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.155978, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047858, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.301213, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072769, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.004854, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.17446, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2778982, "relative_activity": 0.606252, "balance": 2.17446, "dry_up": 0.586935, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115722, "annualized_volatility": 0.414511, "from_high_reference": -0.251825, "from_low_reference": 0.138889 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.743333, "fair_value_reference": 12.144231, "structural_low": 9.23, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.069159, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.082066, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.03367, "worst_return": -0.151515, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.177961, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.227274, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.114478, "worst_return": -0.241445, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.122566, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.309072, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.030303, "worst_return": -0.214829, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.308893, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.380392, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.222222, "worst_return": -0.395564, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032258, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071174, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058366, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.092, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.051064, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06422, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.054187, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014286, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051153, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.088296, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.12037, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.120482, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004854, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 12.25, "volume": 2240784, "typical_volume": 2817568.6, "trend": 12.62, "fair_value": 16.881426, "relative_strength": -13.635202, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.736271, "energy": 7.860682, 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.9, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4840641.5, "trend": 10.613667, "fair_value": 12.211538, "relative_strength": -16.204541, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.909109, "energy": 76.246606, "activity_lines": [ 12.64, 12.128, 11.304857, 10.981656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.2, "volume": 4938998, "typical_volume": 4979731.45, "trend": 10.662667, "fair_value": 12.202244, "relative_strength": -21.829766, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.199345, "energy": 43.793108, "activity_lines": [ 12.2, 12.068, 11.340333, 11.019484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.95, "volume": 2509642, "typical_volume": 5002307.7, "trend": 10.694667, "fair_value": 12.190385, "relative_strength": -24.476179, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.685783, "energy": 29.553496, "activity_lines": [ 11.76, 11.930909, 11.347952, 11.038022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.3, "volume": 3156501, "typical_volume": 5082768.35, "trend": 10.708667, "fair_value": 12.175321, "relative_strength": -27.244936, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.078769, "energy": 16.583488, "activity_lines": [ 11.196667, 11.653636, 11.289, 11.012559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.55, "volume": 2316611, "typical_volume": 4602377.25, "trend": 10.733667, "fair_value": 12.161218, "relative_strength": -26.468126, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.344084, "energy": 23.782786, "activity_lines": [ 10.806667, 11.427273, 11.251048, 11.002323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 10.25, "volume": 2778982, "typical_volume": 4583872.8, "trend": 10.743333, "fair_value": 12.144231, "relative_strength": -30.1213, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.626173, "energy": 28.286726, "activity_lines": [ 10.496667, 11.150909, 11.185714, 10.971118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }