{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "df9feacf-533f-47d5-90ac-f841f3526203",
    "symbol": "SXLK",
    "name": "State Street SPDR S&P U.S. Technology Select Sector UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "AMS",
    "country": "NL",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^AEX",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 73.389,
    "architecture_energy": 46.264,
    "architecture_maturity": 69.253,
    "architecture_confidence": 92.706,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 29.59,
        "rotation_up": 40.93,
        "upward_expansion": 66.67,
        "deceleration": 94.12,
        "rotation_down": 29.14,
        "downward_expansion": 16.01
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        157.631733,
        157.312055,
        154.956001,
        148.85245
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 163.903,
    "trend_reference": 141.2911,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.160038,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 113.370193,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.445733,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 7.9321,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.315032,
    "excess_performance": 0.19837,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.160038,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.067402,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.445733,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.047026,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.079321,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.045848,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.315032,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.487848,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 9678,
      "relative_activity": 0.562282,
      "balance": 1.487848,
      "dry_up": 0.625842,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.041703,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.249158,
      "from_high_reference": -0.002623,
      "from_low_reference": 0.401419
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 141.2911,
      "fair_value_reference": 113.370193,
      "structural_low": 116.955002,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": -0.019351,
        "positive_rate": 0.444444,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.444444,
        "median_excess_return": 0.008048,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.100154,
        "worst_return": -0.04379,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.073063,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.037447,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.149446,
        "worst_return": -0.063476,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.1625,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.103935,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.22434,
        "worst_return": 0.070449,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.15048,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.105593,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.292322,
        "worst_return": -0.056236,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-09-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.05656,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-09-20",
        "end": "2024-10-18",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.057596,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-25",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.014119,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.144259,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.18078,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-06-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.005551,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-06-27",
        "end": "2025-08-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.079194,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-15",
        "end": "2025-11-28",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-02-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.077402,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "start": "2026-02-20",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.019394,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.188201,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "return": 0.078042,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "return": -0.009302,
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        "return": 0.045093,
        "active": true
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        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 42.092137,
        "energy": 41.156087,
        "activity_lines": [
          132.804669,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 138.809998,
        "volume": 21519,
        "typical_volume": 23510.45,
        "trend": 129.195233,
        "fair_value": 106.486545,
        "relative_strength": 5.281826,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 36.932193,
        "energy": 60.333819,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 24232.45,
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        "fair_value": 106.986686,
        "relative_strength": 12.516868,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 93.095779,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 25208.4,
        "trend": 130.763933,
        "fair_value": 107.498673,
        "relative_strength": 16.915806,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 93.189514,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "volume": 26530,
        "typical_volume": 26297.45,
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        "relative_strength": 13.693942,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 87.967183,
        "energy": 95.288915,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 26357.3,
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        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "volume": 1995,
        "typical_volume": 26012.4,
        "trend": 133.341633,
        "fair_value": 109.025776,
        "relative_strength": 14.483475,
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        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "energy": 90.247709,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 26449.65,
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        "relative_strength": 7.589987,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "energy": 78.811262,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 154.285004,
        "volume": 487,
        "typical_volume": 23874.2,
        "trend": 136.010033,
        "fair_value": 110.476526,
        "relative_strength": 7.676926,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.130751,
        "energy": 63.509699,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 156.804001,
        "volume": 3255,
        "typical_volume": 22469.65,
        "trend": 136.7994,
        "fair_value": 110.958334,
        "relative_strength": 6.868605,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "energy": 59.524009,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 159.656006,
        "volume": 7712,
        "typical_volume": 21034.35,
        "trend": 137.8085,
        "fair_value": 111.456096,
        "relative_strength": 8.375101,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 59.489932,
        "energy": 57.210415,
        "activity_lines": [
          157.86467,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 153.787994,
        "volume": 13273,
        "typical_volume": 20881.85,
        "trend": 138.617167,
        "fair_value": 111.910449,
        "relative_strength": 3.487307,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 48.181834,
        "energy": 45.024337,
        "activity_lines": [
          156.558667,
          157.313365,
          151.555958,
          145.352213
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 156.830994,
        "volume": 6962,
        "typical_volume": 19609.4,
        "trend": 139.476867,
        "fair_value": 112.377141,
        "relative_strength": 5.52538,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.89883,
        "energy": 43.64659,
        "activity_lines": [
          156.411198,
          157.176909,
          152.761772,
          146.527299
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 151.809006,
        "volume": 13175,
        "typical_volume": 18084.4,
        "trend": 140.1953,
        "fair_value": 112.827052,
        "relative_strength": 1.240191,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 42.362654,
        "energy": 33.388054,
        "activity_lines": [
          154.923267,
          156.098292,
          153.346058,
          147.322921
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 163.903,
        "volume": 9678,
        "typical_volume": 17212.0,
        "trend": 141.2911,
        "fair_value": 113.370193,
        "relative_strength": 7.9321,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 73.388502,
        "energy": 46.264019,
        "activity_lines": [
          157.631733,
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          148.85245
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}