{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dfa6fb00-a49e-4e0b-81c5-5bc427cf1213", "symbol": "GOOA", "name": "Alphabet Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 52.782, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 10.435, "architecture_energy": 14.972, "architecture_maturity": 59.483, "architecture_confidence": 81.382, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.91, "rotation_up": 17.76, "upward_expansion": 45.31, "deceleration": 87.37, "rotation_down": 33.39, "downward_expansion": 25.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 301.496673, 304.576914, 309.540694, 301.986843 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 308.850006, "trend_reference": 292.559429, "distance_from_trend": 0.055683, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 187.034799, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.651297, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.276747, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.134106, "excess_performance": -0.04014, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.055683, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055462, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.651297, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.336829, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.042767, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.32991, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.134106, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.519798, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1523, "relative_activity": 1.33796, "balance": 0.519798, "dry_up": 1.531011, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061579, "annualized_volatility": 0.331777, "from_high_reference": -0.11696, "from_low_reference": 0.817328 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 292.559429, "fair_value_reference": 187.034799, "structural_low": 238.149994, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.047133, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.01597, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.193897, "worst_return": -0.107568, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.075901, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.038982, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.24781, "worst_return": -0.071009, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.229849, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.144497, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.307929, "worst_return": 0.123419, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"energy": 23.344863, "activity_lines": [ 311.166669, 316.277097, 309.406551, 299.519797 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 304.149994, "volume": 1108, "typical_volume": 990.2, "trend": 289.864082, "fair_value": 183.562139, "relative_strength": -0.369301, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.334731, "energy": 22.325036, "activity_lines": [ 308.493333, 313.020723, 310.124318, 300.535364 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 282.700012, "volume": 2212, "typical_volume": 1049.1, "trend": 290.422945, "fair_value": 184.607802, "relative_strength": -8.984171, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -7.098385, "energy": 14.653027, "activity_lines": [ 299.410004, 306.490088, 308.593698, 300.073166 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 302.950012, "volume": 2128, "typical_volume": 1099.35, "trend": 291.715092, "fair_value": 185.801565, "relative_strength": -2.896577, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.453111, "energy": 17.216726, "activity_lines": [ 299.540006, 304.721509, 308.877554, 300.881364 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 308.850006, "volume": 1523, "typical_volume": 1138.3, "trend": 292.559429, "fair_value": 187.034799, "relative_strength": -4.276747, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.434527, "energy": 14.971642, "activity_lines": [ 301.496673, 304.576914, 309.540694, 301.986843 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }