{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dfaa4fc1-2016-4f08-82c0-6a573a25d216", "symbol": "LCOC", "name": "WisdomTree Cocoa 2x Daily Leveraged", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.5, "architecture_energy": 53.613, "architecture_maturity": 32.889, "architecture_confidence": 59.098, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.06, "rotation_up": 62.53, "upward_expansion": 81.65, "deceleration": 65.2, "rotation_down": 17.21, "downward_expansion": 8.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.303533, 17.200545, 14.361095, 12.773682 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 19.312, "trend_reference": 11.748233, "distance_from_trend": 0.643822, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 44.561032, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.566617, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -28.677201, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.42272, "excess_performance": 0.251828, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.643822, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.260033, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.566617, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.163577, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.286772, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.435191, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.42272, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.462503, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 404630, "relative_activity": 0.901229, "balance": 0.462503, "dry_up": 1.051984, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.187882, "annualized_volatility": 1.263671, "from_high_reference": -0.744212, "from_low_reference": 2.22404 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.748233, "fair_value_reference": 44.561032, "structural_low": 5.99, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.105402, "positive_rate": 0.708333, "directional_follow_through": 0.708333, "median_excess_return": 0.088553, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 1.040055, "worst_return": -0.661971, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.120156, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.048087, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 4.832927, "worst_return": -0.375017, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.484096, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.408966, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 2.645478, "worst_return": -0.217648, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.55608, "energy": 74.835952, "activity_lines": [ 17.918666, 15.028309, 12.447662, 11.708525 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.167999, "volume": 482573, "typical_volume": 460051.65, "trend": 12.323167, "fair_value": 44.437789, "relative_strength": -39.630789, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.361319, "energy": 71.182167, "activity_lines": [ 18.116999, 15.757945, 13.069233, 11.994219 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.01, "volume": 449216, "typical_volume": 446249.95, "trend": 11.917167, "fair_value": 44.488808, "relative_strength": -38.130005, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.982803, "energy": 68.506655, "activity_lines": [ 17.858133, 16.338563, 13.626866, 12.296596 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.312, "volume": 404630, "typical_volume": 448975.85, "trend": 11.748233, "fair_value": 44.561032, "relative_strength": -28.677201, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.500453, "energy": 53.613382, "activity_lines": [ 18.303533, 17.200545, 14.361095, 12.773682 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }