{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dfacd5e0-bf00-4f1c-9600-253d2969f455", "symbol": "SYI", "name": "SPDR ETFs Australia - State Street SPDR MSCI Australia Select High Dividend Yield ETF", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 78.438, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.611, "architecture_energy": 81.609, "architecture_maturity": 6.463, "architecture_confidence": 68.688, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.65, "rotation_up": 82.0, "upward_expansion": 92.28, "deceleration": 42.09, "rotation_down": 8.45, "downward_expansion": 16.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.056667, 30.667268, 30.232028, 30.224443 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 31.83, "trend_reference": 30.147962, "distance_from_trend": 0.055793, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.267774, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.211751, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.661262, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.087943, "excess_performance": 0.024237, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.055793, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015323, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.211751, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074077, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.016613, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016814, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.087943, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.115086, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 296069, "relative_activity": 2.123038, "balance": 2.115086, "dry_up": 1.590785, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019848, "annualized_volatility": 0.137171, "from_high_reference": -0.006864, "from_low_reference": 0.127687 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.147962, "fair_value_reference": 26.267774, "structural_low": 28.283544, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.001457, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.002038, "regime_survival": 0.763158, "best_return": 0.054162, "worst_return": -0.083443, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.011184, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.014783, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.103399, "worst_return": -0.112495, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.041668, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.019376, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.072127, "worst_return": -0.059772, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"fair_value": 26.152505, "relative_strength": 2.72765, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.197472, "energy": 37.353244, "activity_lines": [ 30.388847, 30.125405, 29.976688, 30.041898 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.030001, "volume": 202978, "typical_volume": 134096.6, "trend": 30.045987, "fair_value": 26.207811, "relative_strength": 2.408456, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.108396, "energy": 63.104627, "activity_lines": [ 30.619334, 30.339344, 30.067979, 30.109345 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.83, "volume": 296069, "typical_volume": 139455.35, "trend": 30.147962, "fair_value": 26.267774, "relative_strength": 1.661262, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.611375, "energy": 81.609106, "activity_lines": [ 31.056667, 30.667268, 30.232028, 30.224443 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }