{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dfb61441-d69b-4a09-87e0-5d8294bde92b", "symbol": "MRF", "name": "MRF Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 95.175, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 3.811, "architecture_energy": 11.327, "architecture_maturity": 8.848, "architecture_confidence": 70.456, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.01, "rotation_up": 38.42, "upward_expansion": 37.56, "deceleration": 30.09, "rotation_down": 17.52, "downward_expansion": 41.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 132658.385417, 131847.978551, 130454.998475, 131362.220951 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 134190.0, "trend_reference": 133495.216406, "distance_from_trend": 0.005205, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 131485.242789, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.020571, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.053116, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.083728, "excess_performance": -0.040019, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005205, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053135, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.020571, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010256, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.040531, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024611, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.083728, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.563673, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17167, "relative_activity": 0.671752, "balance": 0.563673, "dry_up": 0.879036, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032814, "annualized_volatility": 0.210878, "from_high_reference": -0.179735, "from_low_reference": 0.099918 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 133495.216406, "fair_value_reference": 131485.242789, "structural_low": 122000.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.037541, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.04363, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.125404, "worst_return": -0.152556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.029962, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.065325, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.155856, "worst_return": -0.143462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.070885, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.118501, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.197923, 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"Established", "return": 0.10996, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.116708, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031938, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005237, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06445, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006339, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", 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"energy": 12.635273, "activity_lines": [ 132117.129167, 130955.207386, 130058.629836, 131345.142608 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 134190.0, "volume": 17167, "typical_volume": 25555.55, "trend": 133495.216406, "fair_value": 131485.242789, "relative_strength": -4.053116, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.811195, "energy": 11.327086, "activity_lines": [ 132658.385417, 131847.978551, 130454.998475, 131362.220951 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }