{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dfb720bb-56e2-4ddd-ba41-edd0d7e7f990", "symbol": "CNYA", "name": "iShares MSCI China A UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 84.428, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -14.7, "architecture_energy": 27.585, "architecture_maturity": 43.636, "architecture_confidence": 54.566, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.02, "rotation_up": 17.01, "upward_expansion": 17.83, "deceleration": 67.72, "rotation_down": 60.47, "downward_expansion": 40.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.9928, 6.068182, 6.116881, 6.08063 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.133, "trend_reference": 6.034533, "distance_from_trend": 0.016317, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.846949, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.265332, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.260077, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.037382, "excess_performance": -0.045502, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.016317, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025624, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.265332, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066783, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.052601, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.159404, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.037382, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.415854, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 748283, "relative_activity": 1.264857, "balance": 0.415854, "dry_up": 2.074033, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031557, "annualized_volatility": 0.172563, "from_high_reference": -0.053549, "from_low_reference": 0.232268 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.034533, "fair_value_reference": 4.846949, "structural_low": 5.5, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.015596, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.0199, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.044213, "worst_return": -0.078357, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.017023, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.067742, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.050062, "worst_return": -0.094985, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.0439, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.007125, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.114513, "worst_return": -0.127729, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.10634, "energy": 46.807578, "activity_lines": [ 6.269533, 6.249818, 6.1548, 6.088202 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 6.182, "volume": 912438, "typical_volume": 453231.2, "trend": 6.013033, "fair_value": 4.813019, "relative_strength": -2.439527, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.989016, "energy": 45.951654, "activity_lines": [ 6.248933, 6.239855, 6.16529, 6.100351 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.8, "volume": 2102340, "typical_volume": 546434.2, "trend": 6.0185, "fair_value": 4.821288, "relative_strength": -9.146482, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.083791, "energy": 10.987531, "activity_lines": [ 6.096933, 6.160109, 6.138476, 6.086606 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.947, "volume": 1223613, "typical_volume": 556786.45, "trend": 6.025733, "fair_value": 4.828971, "relative_strength": -6.732702, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.41129, "energy": 27.052633, "activity_lines": [ 6.019, 6.115873, 6.126886, 6.081994 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.901, "volume": 833712, "typical_volume": 581113.95, "trend": 6.0294, "fair_value": 4.836442, "relative_strength": -7.568203, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.04443, "energy": 35.357832, "activity_lines": [ 5.953933, 6.068255, 6.110662, 6.073946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.133, "volume": 748283, "typical_volume": 591594.75, "trend": 6.034533, "fair_value": 4.846949, "relative_strength": -5.260077, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.699552, "energy": 27.584878, "activity_lines": [ 5.9928, 6.068182, 6.116881, 6.08063 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }