{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dfc3fab2-9857-4076-a450-e90f8c6fb8f9", "symbol": "KCN", "name": "Kingsgate Consolidated Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 79.733, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.404, "architecture_energy": 76.778, "architecture_maturity": 20.709, "architecture_confidence": 84.045, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.73, "rotation_up": 8.98, "upward_expansion": 17.69, "deceleration": 37.12, "rotation_down": 77.0, "downward_expansion": 93.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.242, 4.563455, 5.052, 5.233056 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 4.48, "trend_reference": 5.48928, "distance_from_trend": -0.183864, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.620092, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.709864, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.888006, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.057056, "excess_performance": -0.120762, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.183864, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006556, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.709864, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.297248, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.12888, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.792961, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.057056, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.554732, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8714590, "relative_activity": 1.395187, "balance": 0.554732, "dry_up": 1.475754, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.150755, "annualized_volatility": 0.821453, "from_high_reference": -0.379507, "from_low_reference": 0.647168 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.48928, "fair_value_reference": 2.620092, "structural_low": 3.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.02459, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.023299, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 1.120805, "worst_return": -0.134752, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.067092, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.071445, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.121211, "worst_return": -0.197719, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.194888, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.19402, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.230302, "worst_return": -0.251773, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-52.619099, "energy": 43.511727, "activity_lines": [ 5.320667, 5.535091, 5.616838, 5.660585 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.99, "volume": 4096311, "typical_volume": 7584655.2, "trend": 5.686195, "fair_value": 2.548181, "relative_strength": 4.742757, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.148326, "energy": 42.470712, "activity_lines": [ 5.226667, 5.391636, 5.551314, 5.615548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.92, "volume": 13958920, "typical_volume": 7214090.3, "trend": 5.637835, "fair_value": 2.564229, "relative_strength": -18.122865, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.394752, "energy": 70.764185, "activity_lines": [ 4.777333, 5.078, 5.387383, 5.5016 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.08, "volume": 6319313, "typical_volume": 7103238.8, "trend": 5.589563, "fair_value": 2.581555, "relative_strength": -15.121854, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.090799, "energy": 77.117096, "activity_lines": [ 4.461333, 4.848364, 5.253048, 5.401095 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.04, "volume": 7878475, "typical_volume": 7169407.9, "trend": 5.535039, "fair_value": 2.599161, "relative_strength": -18.435262, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.845376, "energy": 79.229152, "activity_lines": [ 4.233333, 4.648364, 5.126857, 5.301123 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.48, "volume": 8714590, "typical_volume": 6246180.8, "trend": 5.48928, "fair_value": 2.620092, "relative_strength": -12.888006, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.403825, "energy": 76.778191, "activity_lines": [ 4.242, 4.563455, 5.052, 5.233056 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }