{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dfcee167-e235-45cb-a485-dec57ab0c0f3", "symbol": "CARS", "name": "Cars.com Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 84.403, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.555, "architecture_energy": 65.978, "architecture_maturity": 17.135, "architecture_confidence": 74.061, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.63, "rotation_up": 72.06, "upward_expansion": 89.14, "deceleration": 43.58, "rotation_down": 11.29, "downward_expansion": 13.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.896667, 11.447636, 10.916048, 10.53772 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 12.32, "trend_reference": 10.36, "distance_from_trend": 0.189189, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.665962, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.15996, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.422641, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.105925, "excess_performance": -0.0197, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.189189, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034603, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.15996, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082312, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.014226, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07194, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.105925, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.669526, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4430326, "relative_activity": 1.041602, "balance": 1.669526, "dry_up": 0.871476, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101929, "annualized_volatility": 0.641143, "from_high_reference": -0.11811, "from_low_reference": 0.664865 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.36, "fair_value_reference": 14.665962, "structural_low": 7.4, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.028739, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": -0.01443, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.152996, "worst_return": -0.225879, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.012172, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.009249, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.171717, "worst_return": -0.151269, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.118782, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.211451, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.187879, "worst_return": -0.409994, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.109545, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.043465, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.361151, "worst_return": -0.398477, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.121288, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.084677, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.025, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005216, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.075542, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016699, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006195, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010453, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.085054, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", 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"energy": 60.819597, "activity_lines": [ 11.314667, 10.717273, 10.398714, 10.248989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.46, "volume": 2914520, "typical_volume": 5303170.7, "trend": 10.374667, "fair_value": 14.771987, "relative_strength": -4.962588, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.176752, "energy": 58.356166, "activity_lines": [ 11.461333, 10.917818, 10.548857, 10.316624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.85, "volume": 3284845, "typical_volume": 5024010.35, "trend": 10.368333, "fair_value": 14.715577, "relative_strength": -2.29477, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.430918, "energy": 66.64227, "activity_lines": [ 11.637333, 11.16, 10.720238, 10.411806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.32, "volume": 4430326, "typical_volume": 4253375.55, "trend": 10.36, "fair_value": 14.665962, "relative_strength": -1.422641, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.554661, "energy": 65.977551, "activity_lines": [ 11.896667, 11.447636, 10.916048, 10.53772 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }