{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "dfd0a9f9-3cd8-474c-974b-6b2a34e8e018",
    "symbol": "TMC",
    "name": "TMC the metals company Inc",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -60.856,
    "architecture_energy": 50.067,
    "architecture_maturity": 23.527,
    "architecture_confidence": 88.437,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 18.45,
        "rotation_up": 15.37,
        "upward_expansion": 7.57,
        "deceleration": 45.78,
        "rotation_down": 64.92,
        "downward_expansion": 83.24
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        3.986,
        4.146545,
        4.596286,
        4.841656
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 4.57,
    "trend_reference": 5.339333,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.144088,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 3.216385,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.42085,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -31.819881,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.287051,
    "excess_performance": -0.474505,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.144088,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.119551,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.42085,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.51836,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.318199,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.097425,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.287051,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.379373,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 28076377,
      "relative_activity": 1.047569,
      "balance": 0.379373,
      "dry_up": 0.793275,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.186751,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.762163,
      "from_high_reference": -0.597357,
      "from_low_reference": 0.344118
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 5.339333,
      "fair_value_reference": 3.216385,
      "structural_low": 3.4,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": -0.041748,
        "positive_rate": 0.454545,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.545455,
        "median_excess_return": -0.071607,
        "regime_survival": 0.727273,
        "best_return": 1.148649,
        "worst_return": -0.19346,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.319801,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.222997,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.644803,
        "worst_return": -0.037864,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.517488,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.358588,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.582524,
        "worst_return": 0.452453,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 2.794979,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": 2.498682,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 4.699029,
        "worst_return": 0.890929,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2023-12-01",
        "end": "2024-03-01",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.152542,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-01-31",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.065574,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.662162,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "return": -0.009843,
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      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 3.56,
        "volume": 20178579,
        "typical_volume": 26702633.25,
        "trend": 5.420333,
        "fair_value": 3.194142,
        "relative_strength": -44.585087,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -70.907106,
        "energy": 73.119331,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.756667,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 4.57,
        "volume": 28076377,
        "typical_volume": 26801458.6,
        "trend": 5.339333,
        "fair_value": 3.216385,
        "relative_strength": -31.819881,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -60.85633,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}