{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dfddfc71-bd73-46e2-9b3c-c825562fbb8a", "symbol": "MCM", "name": "MC Mining Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 60.806, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -31.046, "architecture_energy": 34.236, "architecture_maturity": 7.475, "architecture_confidence": 45.673, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.51, "rotation_up": 24.03, "upward_expansion": 12.39, "deceleration": 54.25, "rotation_down": 51.46, "downward_expansion": 49.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.274, 0.275636, 0.286738, 0.288161 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.275, "trend_reference": 0.280167, "distance_from_trend": -0.018441, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.166814, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.648542, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 9.659915, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.25, "excess_performance": 0.186294, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.018441, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070019, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.648542, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.246026, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.096599, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.449632, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.25, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.800827, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 189263, "relative_activity": 2.257971, "balance": 0.800827, "dry_up": 0.796475, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047552, "annualized_volatility": 0.435946, "from_high_reference": -0.256757, "from_low_reference": 1.619048 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.280167, "fair_value_reference": 0.166814, "structural_low": 0.22, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.096154, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.102797, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.321429, "worst_return": -0.032255, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.076923, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.035738, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.107143, "worst_return": -0.107535, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.375727, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.360586, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.559146, "worst_return": 0.192308, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.683995, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.660623, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.752604, "worst_return": -0.384615, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.230769, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.119048, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.107143, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.173913, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.227273, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.653846, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.386364, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.084746, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.155, "volume": 6451, "typical_volume": 88992.3, "trend": 0.184917, "fair_value": 0.140124, "relative_strength": -31.162131, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.779358, "energy": 18.770439, "activity_lines": [ 0.159667, 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17.066786, "activity_lines": [ 0.299333, 0.303091, 0.30281, 0.287774 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 0.275, "volume": 13131, "typical_volume": 202774.55, "trend": 0.268, "fair_value": 0.162567, "relative_strength": 25.718629, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.30319, "energy": 12.307701, "activity_lines": [ 0.29, 0.297545, 0.301238, 0.288323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.27, "volume": 5000, "typical_volume": 196540.95, "trend": 0.2705, "fair_value": 0.163224, "relative_strength": 20.557566, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -7.786978, "energy": 27.481093, "activity_lines": [ 0.281667, 0.291818, 0.298929, 0.288452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.27, "volume": 51753, "typical_volume": 194985.25, "trend": 0.2715, "fair_value": 0.163897, "relative_strength": 19.308381, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -10.54221, "energy": 45.454653, "activity_lines": [ 0.276, 0.286818, 0.296405, 0.288419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.27, "volume": 10795, "typical_volume": 141789.05, "trend": 0.273333, "fair_value": 0.164667, "relative_strength": 17.835653, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.52836, "energy": 57.760964, "activity_lines": [ 0.272333, 0.282455, 0.293667, 0.288323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.275, "volume": 49301, "typical_volume": 139799.45, "trend": 0.275833, "fair_value": 0.165372, "relative_strength": 18.716411, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.139075, "energy": 54.8357, "activity_lines": [ 0.272, 0.279455, 0.291333, 0.28843 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.275, "volume": 17683, "typical_volume": 117963.6, "trend": 0.278333, "fair_value": 0.166109, "relative_strength": 14.516166, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.718405, "energy": 42.456, "activity_lines": [ 0.273, 0.277182, 0.288929, 0.288376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.275, "volume": 189263, "typical_volume": 83819.95, "trend": 0.280167, "fair_value": 0.166814, "relative_strength": 9.659915, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.045941, "energy": 34.236046, "activity_lines": [ 0.274, 0.275636, 0.286738, 0.288161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }