{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dfe1379d-ae53-4c61-b663-d91465ce4e53", "symbol": "MADRASFERT", "name": "Madras Fertilizers Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.007, "architecture_energy": 24.676, "architecture_maturity": 25.897, "architecture_confidence": 68.395, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.02, "rotation_up": 11.52, "upward_expansion": 14.54, "deceleration": 52.25, "rotation_down": 55.09, "downward_expansion": 62.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 66.720001, 67.716364, 67.928952, 67.444151 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 66.410004, "trend_reference": 67.951, "distance_from_trend": -0.022678, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 86.803205, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.234936, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.740474, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.077254, "excess_performance": -0.033545, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.022678, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045552, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.234936, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032335, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097405, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005047, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.077254, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.788703, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 167289, "relative_activity": 0.391627, "balance": 0.788703, "dry_up": 0.658246, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05817, "annualized_volatility": 0.322096, "from_high_reference": -0.311028, "from_low_reference": 0.263508 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 67.951, "fair_value_reference": 86.803205, "structural_low": 52.560001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.046833, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.023527, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.974302, "worst_return": -0.102307, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.033698, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.030024, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.322969, "worst_return": -0.110727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.205423, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.176307, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.93662, "worst_return": -0.173055, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.123844, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.167105, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.212421, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003152, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009304, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", 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"2026-07-31", "close": 66.43, "volume": 238507, "typical_volume": 439754.85, "trend": 68.474333, "fair_value": 86.845449, "relative_strength": -9.576775, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.250362, "energy": 19.489473, "activity_lines": [ 67.187999, 68.08309, 67.974095, 67.577333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 66.410004, "volume": 167289, "typical_volume": 427164.1, "trend": 67.951, "fair_value": 86.803205, "relative_strength": -9.740474, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.007021, "energy": 24.675596, "activity_lines": [ 66.720001, 67.716364, 67.928952, 67.444151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }