{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dfe481db-eaf5-4e27-8e04-46b524e4207c", "symbol": "ABT", "name": "Abitare In S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 81.253, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 7.216, "architecture_energy": 11.954, "architecture_maturity": 14.218, "architecture_confidence": 59.906, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.42, "rotation_up": 40.36, "upward_expansion": 39.89, "deceleration": 29.87, "rotation_down": 27.93, "downward_expansion": 19.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.816, 2.808727, 2.788571, 2.792473 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.82, "trend_reference": 2.812333, "distance_from_trend": 0.002726, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.763507, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.250699, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.87649, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.02926, "excess_performance": -0.200152, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002726, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00319, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.250699, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082763, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.148765, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063739, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.02926, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.41932, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 74496, "relative_activity": 0.728013, "balance": 0.41932, "dry_up": 2.206425, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045008, "annualized_volatility": 0.21369, "from_high_reference": -0.096154, "from_low_reference": 0.101562 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.812333, "fair_value_reference": 3.763507, "structural_low": 2.56, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.017928, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.017517, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.075697, "worst_return": -0.140351, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.038849, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.111518, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.039427, "worst_return": -0.301176, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.110149, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.242212, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.016154, "worst_return": -0.245349, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.176136, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.314183, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.063224, "worst_return": -0.303529, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-06-23", "end": "2023-09-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.003584, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-09-22", "end": "2023-11-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046106, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02988, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.036511, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.16, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.063063, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009592, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019465, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.070588, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 2.82, "volume": 733839, "typical_volume": 106753.1, "trend": 2.815667, "fair_value": 3.792068, "relative_strength": -12.62845, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.220682, "energy": 11.669442, "activity_lines": [ 2.822667, 2.813273, 2.782571, 2.794452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.78, "volume": 50745, "typical_volume": 104269.8, "trend": 2.815, "fair_value": 3.777719, "relative_strength": -13.98062, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.930153, "energy": 13.676228, "activity_lines": [ 2.810667, 2.806727, 2.783381, 2.792151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.82, "volume": 74496, "typical_volume": 102327.85, "trend": 2.812333, "fair_value": 3.763507, "relative_strength": -14.87649, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.215913, "energy": 11.953631, "activity_lines": [ 2.816, 2.808727, 2.788571, 2.792473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }