{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dfe4a0a8-4b00-43d6-9ae0-498106d447a1", "symbol": "GO", "name": "Grocery Outlet Holding Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.834, "architecture_energy": 26.312, "architecture_maturity": 48.961, "architecture_confidence": 69.75, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.82, "rotation_up": 35.98, "upward_expansion": 64.75, "deceleration": 84.85, "rotation_down": 25.45, "downward_expansion": 14.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.48, 9.581455, 9.117357, 8.786871 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.91, "trend_reference": 8.683833, "distance_from_trend": 0.141201, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.507724, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.433964, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.633198, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.015889, "excess_performance": -0.203342, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.141201, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044104, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.433964, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.142385, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.216332, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.227088, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.015889, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.423527, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11898045, "relative_activity": 0.833584, "balance": 1.423527, "dry_up": 0.78198, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102942, "annualized_volatility": 0.763049, "from_high_reference": -0.484659, "from_low_reference": 0.752431 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.683833, "fair_value_reference": 17.507724, "structural_low": 5.655, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.113974, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.090502, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.141278, "worst_return": -0.182219, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.279468, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.163217, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.378788, "worst_return": -0.382514, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.204448, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.259214, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.749386, "worst_return": -0.561627, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -25.623601, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.583886, "energy": 64.166868, "activity_lines": [ 9.954667, 9.433545, 8.682357, 8.615129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.44, "volume": 9303613, "typical_volume": 17261287.0, "trend": 8.7465, "fair_value": 17.975385, "relative_strength": -25.741358, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.182122, "energy": 52.985005, "activity_lines": [ 9.826, 9.517091, 8.803619, 8.658667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.01, "volume": 11451892, "typical_volume": 15810455.3, "trend": 8.7045, "fair_value": 17.81875, "relative_strength": -27.097673, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.830274, "energy": 30.893802, "activity_lines": [ 9.563333, 9.499727, 8.886024, 8.675667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.19, "volume": 11992417, "typical_volume": 15020289.45, "trend": 8.671833, "fair_value": 17.664327, "relative_strength": -25.162769, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.009731, "energy": 25.487807, "activity_lines": [ 9.377333, 9.485818, 8.974048, 8.706989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.91, "volume": 11898045, "typical_volume": 14273364.7, "trend": 8.683833, "fair_value": 17.507724, "relative_strength": -21.633198, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.834181, "energy": 26.311668, "activity_lines": [ 9.48, 9.581455, 9.117357, 8.786871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }