{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dfe66168-4915-4f69-a9d4-cae4c10280cf", "symbol": "FHS", "name": "Freehill Mining Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.783, "architecture_energy": 19.763, "architecture_maturity": 85.267, "architecture_confidence": 79.792, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.64, "rotation_up": 31.26, "upward_expansion": 23.13, "deceleration": 41.16, "rotation_down": 29.25, "downward_expansion": 57.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0015, 0.001418, 0.00151, 0.001735 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.0015, "trend_reference": 0.002183, "distance_from_trend": -0.312977, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.004583, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.672714, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -51.846666, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.625, "excess_performance": -0.688706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.312977, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.288043, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.672714, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013312, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.518467, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068103, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.625, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.314194, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9147980, "relative_activity": 0.881893, "balance": 1.314194, "dry_up": 1.761732, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.333333, "annualized_volatility": 2.039215, "from_high_reference": -0.7, "from_low_reference": 0.5 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.002183, "fair_value_reference": 0.004583, "structural_low": 0.001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 45, "median_return": -0.045487, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.577778, "median_excess_return": -0.052439, "regime_survival": 0.933333, "best_return": 3.0, "worst_return": -0.375033, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.190926, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.210446, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.56658, "worst_return": -0.692326, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.316668, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.29047, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.827676, "worst_return": -0.777784, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.017577, "energy": 59.624479, "activity_lines": [ 0.001333, 0.0014, 0.001602, 0.001967 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.002, "volume": 35320970, "typical_volume": 13498813.3, "trend": 0.00245, "fair_value": 0.004631, "relative_strength": -36.217431, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.559157, "energy": 26.767144, "activity_lines": [ 0.0016, 0.001491, 0.001617, 0.001933 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.001, "volume": 12205619, "typical_volume": 12538244.5, "trend": 0.00235, "fair_value": 0.004613, "relative_strength": -67.305251, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.848298, "energy": 31.185809, "activity_lines": [ 0.001467, 0.001391, 0.00154, 0.00184 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0015, "volume": 16424080, "typical_volume": 13057048.55, "trend": 0.002267, "fair_value": 0.004598, "relative_strength": -51.125097, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.306728, "energy": 22.714389, "activity_lines": [ 0.0015, 0.0014, 0.001521, 0.001785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0015, "volume": 9147980, "typical_volume": 10373120.25, "trend": 0.002183, "fair_value": 0.004583, "relative_strength": -51.846666, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.783134, "energy": 19.762622, "activity_lines": [ 0.0015, 0.001418, 0.00151, 0.001735 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }