{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dfeaae45-cc73-4661-b69f-615558309766", "symbol": "6612", "name": "ICARES Medicus, Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 51.703, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 5.326, "architecture_energy": 3.534, "architecture_maturity": 24.125, "architecture_confidence": 40.589, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.83, "rotation_up": 32.1, "upward_expansion": 24.34, "deceleration": 55.56, "rotation_down": 35.4, "downward_expansion": 33.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 72.146668, 72.232728, 71.860477, 71.501936 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 72.900002, "trend_reference": 72.056667, "distance_from_trend": 0.011704, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 101.283767, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.28024, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -36.254734, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.028, "excess_performance": -0.469372, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011704, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036031, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.28024, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087804, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.362547, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.144689, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.028, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.5871, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 92255, "relative_activity": 0.574288, "balance": 1.5871, "dry_up": 0.58673, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065422, "annualized_volatility": 0.284604, "from_high_reference": -0.340271, "from_low_reference": 0.104545 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 72.056667, "fair_value_reference": 101.283767, "structural_low": 66.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.008197, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.013048, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.461794, "worst_return": -0.130952, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.012166, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.046489, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.754926, "worst_return": -0.160142, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.235257, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.193627, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.733576, "worst_return": -0.197867, "sufficient": false }, { 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.174545, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.093248, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007117, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088462, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.094421, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", 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71.843636, 71.402858, 71.326237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 73.800003, "volume": 80150, "typical_volume": 159184.1, "trend": 71.986667, "fair_value": 101.511721, "relative_strength": -34.42839, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.296085, "energy": 8.118436, "activity_lines": [ 71.806667, 72.132728, 71.683334, 71.443011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 72.900002, "volume": 92255, "typical_volume": 160642.35, "trend": 72.056667, "fair_value": 101.283767, "relative_strength": -36.254734, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.325806, "energy": 3.534453, "activity_lines": [ 72.146668, 72.232728, 71.860477, 71.501936 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }