{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dfede15f-0fd1-4360-b77a-29c064dda3f5", "symbol": "RBR", "name": "RBR Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.597, "architecture_energy": 46.707, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.56, "rotation_up": 26.12, "upward_expansion": 7.1, "deceleration": 57.77, "rotation_down": 52.49, "downward_expansion": 82.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0164, 0.0166, 0.017643, 0.018804 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.016, "trend_reference": 0.0202, "distance_from_trend": -0.207921, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.038764, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.587246, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.404115, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.407407, "excess_performance": -0.471113, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.207921, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10355, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.587246, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077048, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.344041, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139929, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.407407, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.129982, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 650000, "relative_activity": 1.209738, "balance": 0.129982, "dry_up": 0.98484, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115385, "annualized_volatility": 0.775537, "from_high_reference": -0.733333, "from_low_reference": 0.454545 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0202, "fair_value_reference": 0.038764, "structural_low": 0.014, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.292683, "directional_follow_through": 0.341463, "median_excess_return": -0.0198, "regime_survival": 0.804878, "best_return": 0.50001, "worst_return": -0.428571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": 0.016987, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.50001, "worst_return": -0.272729, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.250002, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.314633, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.428561, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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0.016927, 0.018376, 0.019551 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.018, "volume": 278000, "typical_volume": 538692.35, "trend": 0.020533, "fair_value": 0.039568, "relative_strength": -23.938306, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.871749, "energy": 46.433612, "activity_lines": [ 0.0168, 0.017018, 0.018238, 0.019383 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.016, "volume": 849702, "typical_volume": 541609.35, "trend": 0.020433, "fair_value": 0.039166, "relative_strength": -33.128487, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.205817, "energy": 48.65327, "activity_lines": [ 0.0166, 0.016782, 0.017933, 0.01909 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.016, "volume": 650000, "typical_volume": 537306.25, "trend": 0.0202, "fair_value": 0.038764, "relative_strength": -34.404115, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.596758, "energy": 46.706632, "activity_lines": [ 0.0164, 0.0166, 0.017643, 0.018804 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }