{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dff38a06-516a-42be-a91c-a06bc9c8a2da", "symbol": "002144", "name": "Hongda High-Tech Holding Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.808, "architecture_energy": 60.543, "architecture_maturity": 65.446, "architecture_confidence": 94.169, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.21, "rotation_up": 27.16, "upward_expansion": 11.62, "deceleration": 60.17, "rotation_down": 51.27, "downward_expansion": 82.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.148, 10.263137, 11.254509, 12.180916 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.49, "trend_reference": 13.143029, "distance_from_trend": -0.201858, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.161041, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.060124, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.399756, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.305298, "excess_performance": -0.312698, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.201858, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062922, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.060124, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.331849, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.223998, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097371, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.305298, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.418868, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19875722, "relative_activity": 1.019452, "balance": 0.418868, "dry_up": 1.686508, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090949, "annualized_volatility": 0.376256, "from_high_reference": -0.410011, "from_low_reference": 0.164262 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.143029, "fair_value_reference": 11.161041, "structural_low": 9.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.007523, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.007346, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.143365, "worst_return": -0.068647, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.129918, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.017105, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.220674, "worst_return": -0.071656, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.213705, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.013361, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.221597, "worst_return": 0.028588, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 20145786.45, "trend": 13.487696, "fair_value": 11.185789, "relative_strength": -26.472518, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.843347, "energy": 86.172583, "activity_lines": [ 10.503215, 11.046895, 12.360764, 13.03273 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.33, "volume": 54803822, "typical_volume": 21225483.45, "trend": 13.423029, "fair_value": 11.181851, "relative_strength": -22.043261, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.720995, "energy": 73.96193, "activity_lines": [ 10.426667, 10.796394, 12.062427, 12.829007 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.3, "volume": 34935290, "typical_volume": 20378452.05, "trend": 13.306029, "fair_value": 11.170808, "relative_strength": -29.567166, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.682496, "energy": 70.676114, "activity_lines": [ 10.056, 10.428505, 11.697946, 12.563005 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.11, "volume": 21909019, "typical_volume": 19863759.6, "trend": 13.216363, "fair_value": 11.164832, "relative_strength": -21.76609, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.88258, "energy": 63.059999, "activity_lines": [ 10.042667, 10.283653, 11.444466, 12.35681 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.49, "volume": 19875722, "typical_volume": 19496478.2, "trend": 13.143029, "fair_value": 11.161041, "relative_strength": -22.399756, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.808067, "energy": 60.543496, "activity_lines": [ 10.148, 10.263137, 11.254509, 12.180916 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }