{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dff8dd58-4822-42af-9bd1-3d31600276ef", "symbol": "UBER", "name": "Uber Technologies, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -19.918, "architecture_energy": 16.147, "architecture_maturity": 24.46, "architecture_confidence": 68.322, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.76, "rotation_up": 19.0, "upward_expansion": 13.75, "deceleration": 55.17, "rotation_down": 48.12, "downward_expansion": 65.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 62.786, 63.206182, 63.073048, 63.113591 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 64.68, "trend_reference": 63.662667, "distance_from_trend": 0.01598, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 65.803397, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.017072, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.41091, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.032402, "excess_performance": -0.141845, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01598, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052972, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.017072, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027551, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.254109, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00862, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.032402, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.788549, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4993, "relative_activity": 2.853795, "balance": 0.788549, "dry_up": 1.977881, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047096, "annualized_volatility": 0.284444, "from_high_reference": -0.250608, "from_low_reference": 0.109053 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 63.662667, "fair_value_reference": 65.803397, "structural_low": 58.32, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.031889, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.047113, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.172597, "worst_return": -0.125165, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.062304, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.076404, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.114707, "worst_return": -0.202132, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.133179, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.226118, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.173358, "worst_return": -0.432644, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.074072, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.120747, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.131167, "worst_return": -0.279312, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.136216, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.137369, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.151916, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.09882, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.222222, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060462, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030283, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.056251, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037186, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014014, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047792, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.146858, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.036701, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010858, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 40.419998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 236.6, "trend": 34.6595, "fair_value": 34.3825, "relative_strength": 28.88537, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": 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63.0, "volume": 2141, "typical_volume": 1505.6, "trend": 64.545, "fair_value": 65.409872, "relative_strength": -26.396788, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.230716, "energy": 20.4354, "activity_lines": [ 64.572, 63.575455, 63.304857, 63.509097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 61.439999, "volume": 2903, "typical_volume": 1495.45, "trend": 64.313334, "fair_value": 65.525641, "relative_strength": -28.479385, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.068671, "energy": 14.690407, "activity_lines": [ 63.548666, 63.259091, 63.136095, 63.308774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 60.57, "volume": 3805, "typical_volume": 1578.45, "trend": 63.962, "fair_value": 65.645064, "relative_strength": -28.751188, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.05705, "energy": 29.242238, "activity_lines": [ 62.305333, 62.835454, 62.900095, 63.067269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 64.68, "volume": 4993, "typical_volume": 1749.6, "trend": 63.662667, "fair_value": 65.803397, "relative_strength": -25.41091, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.917522, "energy": 16.14668, "activity_lines": [ 62.786, 63.206182, 63.073048, 63.113591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }