{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dffa2d4b-b884-46a0-9204-95a7c5934b06", "symbol": "NME", "name": "Nex Metals Explorations Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.471, "architecture_energy": 69.625, "architecture_maturity": 66.992, "architecture_confidence": 76.071, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.38, "rotation_up": 12.32, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.79, "rotation_down": 80.52, "downward_expansion": 90.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.011067, 0.011745, 0.014, 0.015077 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.011, "trend_reference": 0.016333, "distance_from_trend": -0.326531, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.024003, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.541728, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -45.105817, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.388889, "excess_performance": -0.452595, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.326531, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137324, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.541728, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.325337, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.451058, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.337636, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.388889, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.240865, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 449148, "relative_activity": 7.134526, "balance": 0.240865, "dry_up": 1.888152, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090909, "annualized_volatility": 0.638906, "from_high_reference": -0.607143, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.016333, "fair_value_reference": 0.024003, "structural_low": 0.011, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.05, "positive_rate": 0.344828, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": -0.05459, "regime_survival": 0.793103, "best_return": 0.56, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.006303, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000968, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.285714, "worst_return": -0.346154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.212121, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.256863, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.294118, "worst_return": -0.307692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"orange", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.225806, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.212121, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.08, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": 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0.013582, 0.015467, 0.016213 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.011, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 54327.95, "trend": 0.016867, "fair_value": 0.02408, "relative_strength": -43.46583, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.359418, "energy": 93.070007, "activity_lines": [ 0.0114, 0.012836, 0.014957, 0.015817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.011, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 43871.85, "trend": 0.0166, "fair_value": 0.024042, "relative_strength": -44.060221, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.294038, "energy": 88.852877, "activity_lines": [ 0.0112, 0.012218, 0.014462, 0.015439 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.011, "volume": 449148, "typical_volume": 62954.15, "trend": 0.016333, "fair_value": 0.024003, "relative_strength": -45.105817, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.471245, "energy": 69.62511, "activity_lines": [ 0.011067, 0.011745, 0.014, 0.015077 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }