{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dffbfe27-b9bd-43e6-9b3e-be895ac5aa7e", "symbol": "AOF", "name": "AoFrio Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.385, "architecture_energy": 57.56, "architecture_maturity": 20.371, "architecture_confidence": 82.462, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.24, "rotation_up": 14.38, "upward_expansion": 11.41, "deceleration": 39.28, "rotation_down": 66.05, "downward_expansion": 80.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.070467, 0.072764, 0.073129, 0.074991 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.065, "trend_reference": 0.079233, "distance_from_trend": -0.179638, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.082974, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.216625, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.367542, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.301075, "excess_performance": -0.329349, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.179638, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079039, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.216625, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049069, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.243675, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03055, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.301075, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.299815, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1876597, "relative_activity": 4.446421, "balance": 0.299815, "dry_up": 1.892678, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086391, "annualized_volatility": 0.317151, "from_high_reference": -0.386792, "from_low_reference": 0.031746 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.079233, "fair_value_reference": 0.082974, "structural_low": 0.063, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.029605, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.002907, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.652174, "worst_return": -0.089109, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.011716, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.014275, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.931034, "worst_return": -0.267327, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.334868, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.292114, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.3, "worst_return": -0.287129, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019608, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.089109, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.115789, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103774, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040404, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044444, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.075, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.012987, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.097222, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.079, "volume": 241333, "typical_volume": 671844.2, "trend": 0.097333, "fair_value": 0.119147, "relative_strength": -28.667936, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": 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0.075236, 0.074729, 0.077267 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.072, "volume": 780614, "typical_volume": 340357.75, "trend": 0.081067, "fair_value": 0.083135, "relative_strength": -17.003852, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.456933, "energy": 16.883239, "activity_lines": [ 0.0756, 0.074927, 0.07439, 0.076632 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.071, "volume": 180280, "typical_volume": 332846.1, "trend": 0.080367, "fair_value": 0.083083, "relative_strength": -17.203562, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.034139, "energy": 22.606069, "activity_lines": [ 0.073867, 0.0744, 0.074024, 0.075983 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.065, "volume": 1876597, "typical_volume": 422046.6, "trend": 0.079233, "fair_value": 0.082974, "relative_strength": -24.367542, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.385365, "energy": 57.559567, "activity_lines": [ 0.070467, 0.072764, 0.073129, 0.074991 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }