{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dffc0cad-7e80-4d0b-845a-4a68a57bafd4", "symbol": "2812", "name": "Taichung Commercial Bank Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 63.702, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 12.99, "architecture_energy": 15.156, "architecture_maturity": 13.718, "architecture_confidence": 59.371, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.39, "rotation_up": 41.63, "upward_expansion": 32.87, "deceleration": 40.14, "rotation_down": 21.7, "downward_expansion": 19.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.71717, 18.690624, 18.391096, 18.437553 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 18.65, "trend_reference": 18.529194, "distance_from_trend": 0.00652, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.10378, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.158113, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -31.329191, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.00447, "excess_performance": -0.445842, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00652, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014943, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.158113, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047303, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.313292, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082574, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.00447, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.586993, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 55434017, "relative_activity": 0.61912, "balance": 1.586993, "dry_up": 1.299611, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035217, "annualized_volatility": 0.14898, "from_high_reference": -0.126882, "from_low_reference": 0.122033 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.529194, "fair_value_reference": 16.10378, "structural_low": 16.621608, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.003676, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.024369, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.022641, "worst_return": -0.095941, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.035657, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.029562, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.109434, "worst_return": -0.03812, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.080812, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.036809, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.148148, "worst_return": 0.013475, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005319, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03523, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068063, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.15251, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.028037, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": 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"relative_strength": -28.282073, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.640952, "energy": 34.160358, "activity_lines": [ 18.82864, 18.596833, 18.338431, 18.425072 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.65, "volume": 136069498, "typical_volume": 88757082.5, "trend": 18.54423, "fair_value": 16.058235, "relative_strength": -29.766891, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.888486, "energy": 20.72108, "activity_lines": [ 18.770114, 18.659246, 18.364346, 18.430729 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 18.65, "volume": 55434017, "typical_volume": 89536740.3, "trend": 18.529194, "fair_value": 16.10378, "relative_strength": -31.329191, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.989568, "energy": 15.155616, "activity_lines": [ 18.71717, 18.690624, 18.391096, 18.437553 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }