{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dfff0e77-da15-466d-bb3e-bf68c97caaa6", "symbol": "GRCE", "name": "Grace Therapeutics, Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.073, "architecture_energy": 74.815, "architecture_maturity": 57.312, "architecture_confidence": 94.87, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.3, "rotation_up": 27.94, "upward_expansion": 18.7, "deceleration": 37.37, "rotation_down": 49.79, "downward_expansion": 89.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.223333, 2.288364, 2.407429, 2.744688 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.13, "trend_reference": 3.131667, "distance_from_trend": -0.319851, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.139651, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.321581, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.019617, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.408333, "excess_performance": -0.595787, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.319851, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096287, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.321581, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037239, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.420196, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000626, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.408333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.703239, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1128721, "relative_activity": 0.412082, "balance": 0.703239, "dry_up": 0.448696, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.141264, "annualized_volatility": 1.246192, "from_high_reference": -0.588803, "from_low_reference": 0.189944 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.131667, "fair_value_reference": 3.139651, "structural_low": 1.79, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.047469, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.010693, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.021008, "worst_return": -0.07393, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.491304, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018519, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.171206, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-11", "close": 3.3406, "volume": 113267, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, 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[ 2.347333, 2.336545, 2.76619, 3.058667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.45, "volume": 882413, "typical_volume": 2884081.6, "trend": 3.303, "fair_value": 3.178223, "relative_strength": -35.812273, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.418358, "energy": 30.918597, "activity_lines": [ 2.388667, 2.359455, 2.693905, 3.001785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.47, "volume": 789260, "typical_volume": 2894395.45, "trend": 3.272, "fair_value": 3.170608, "relative_strength": -31.867818, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.565737, "energy": 33.602238, "activity_lines": [ 2.426667, 2.384, 2.630333, 2.948043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.33, "volume": 531992, "typical_volume": 2851323.65, "trend": 3.236333, "fair_value": 3.161665, "relative_strength": -34.188603, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.924065, "energy": 61.34472, "activity_lines": [ 2.4, 2.380727, 2.562095, 2.887269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.08, "volume": 2466059, "typical_volume": 2803234.9, "trend": 3.183667, "fair_value": 3.150279, "relative_strength": -41.094293, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.894189, "energy": 72.664123, "activity_lines": [ 2.293333, 2.328909, 2.477333, 2.812667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.13, "volume": 1128721, "typical_volume": 2739067.9, "trend": 3.131667, "fair_value": 3.139651, "relative_strength": -42.019617, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.073424, "energy": 74.81485, "activity_lines": [ 2.223333, 2.288364, 2.407429, 2.744688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }