{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e002444a-6399-47d0-9830-2b2340e35f5d", "symbol": "FOF", "name": "Cohen & Steers Closed-End Opportunity Fund Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 82.743, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.144, "architecture_energy": 15.189, "architecture_maturity": 16.736, "architecture_confidence": 57.941, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.45, "rotation_up": 41.29, "upward_expansion": 63.49, "deceleration": 52.62, "rotation_down": 21.86, "downward_expansion": 13.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.617524, 13.597807, 13.607898, 13.564261 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.68, "trend_reference": 13.55769, "distance_from_trend": 0.009021, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.17384, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.224288, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.725196, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.016434, "excess_performance": -0.142059, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009021, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025383, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.224288, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072329, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.067252, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053823, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.016434, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.078052, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 230575, "relative_activity": 0.864391, "balance": 1.078052, "dry_up": 0.789663, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032114, "annualized_volatility": 0.141842, "from_high_reference": -0.061558, "from_low_reference": 0.144006 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.55769, "fair_value_reference": 11.17384, "structural_low": 12.332601, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.008737, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.003627, "regime_survival": 0.357143, "best_return": 0.095186, "worst_return": -0.101057, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.020889, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.013704, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.097163, "worst_return": -0.106818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.00909, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.049097, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.12603, "worst_return": 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13.641041, 13.616059, 13.573235, 13.549203 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.48, "volume": 178693, "typical_volume": 278482.25, "trend": 13.503241, "fair_value": 11.109379, "relative_strength": -4.083775, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.718297, "energy": 17.850562, "activity_lines": [ 13.603994, 13.588304, 13.574972, 13.549168 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.59, "volume": 234961, "typical_volume": 267690.85, "trend": 13.532818, "fair_value": 11.141496, "relative_strength": -4.229062, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.515368, "energy": 14.336027, "activity_lines": [ 13.603913, 13.583136, 13.588134, 13.554766 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.68, "volume": 230575, "typical_volume": 266748.35, "trend": 13.55769, "fair_value": 11.17384, "relative_strength": -6.725196, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.14405, "energy": 15.188851, "activity_lines": [ 13.617524, 13.597807, 13.607898, 13.564261 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }