{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "e0068117-43ba-4e58-9f43-eb03051f9f82",
    "symbol": "DSP5",
    "name": "Amundi MSCI USA Daily (-1x) Inverse ETF Acc",
    "exchange": "PAR",
    "country": "FR",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FCHI",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing",
    "transition": "stage_1_building",
    "transition_label": "Base still building",
    "confidence": 62.771,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -19.713,
    "architecture_energy": 22.195,
    "architecture_maturity": 68.595,
    "architecture_confidence": 66.36,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 50.0,
        "rotation_up": 42.08,
        "upward_expansion": 39.47,
        "deceleration": 43.57,
        "rotation_down": 22.26,
        "downward_expansion": 38.81
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        4.788733,
        4.751318,
        4.711907,
        4.765526
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 4.6165,
    "trend_reference": 4.816283,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.041481,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 6.025298,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.233814,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -11.644158,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.047162,
    "excess_performance": -0.100473,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.041481,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.013852,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.233814,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.042632,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.116442,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.009171,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.047162,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.042199,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 408559,
      "relative_activity": 1.452242,
      "balance": 1.042199,
      "dry_up": 1.033393,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.036716,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.195229,
      "from_high_reference": -0.149816,
      "from_low_reference": 0.025661
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 4.816283,
      "fair_value_reference": 6.025298,
      "structural_low": 4.501,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 41,
        "median_return": -0.011751,
        "positive_rate": 0.365854,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.634146,
        "median_excess_return": -0.009438,
        "regime_survival": 0.902439,
        "best_return": 0.123069,
        "worst_return": -0.121861,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 13,
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        "worst_return": -0.173619,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
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        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "worst_return": -0.281922,
        "sufficient": false
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        "end": "2024-11-22",
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      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 286171.25,
        "trend": 4.818467,
        "fair_value": 6.085064,
        "relative_strength": -3.966836,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -12.663117,
        "energy": 20.974069,
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          4.70789,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 4.9055,
        "volume": 118069,
        "typical_volume": 273944.8,
        "trend": 4.822117,
        "fair_value": 6.06733,
        "relative_strength": -3.069567,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": 8.282726,
        "energy": 20.710047,
        "activity_lines": [
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          4.71719,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 4.9175,
        "volume": 437214,
        "typical_volume": 275516.4,
        "trend": 4.823833,
        "fair_value": 6.048333,
        "relative_strength": -4.021641,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 27.903627,
        "energy": 32.231373,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.8497,
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          4.728198,
          4.778902
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 4.6165,
        "volume": 408559,
        "typical_volume": 281329.85,
        "trend": 4.816283,
        "fair_value": 6.025298,
        "relative_strength": -11.644158,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -19.712792,
        "energy": 22.194549,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}