{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "e008cf64-ccc1-43df-8301-158ec012c09e",
    "symbol": "MRVE3",
    "name": "MRV Engenharia e Participa\u00e7\u00f5es S.A.",
    "exchange": "SAO",
    "country": "BR",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^BVSP",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -73.855,
    "architecture_energy": 74.866,
    "architecture_maturity": 54.031,
    "architecture_confidence": 96,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 7.01,
        "rotation_up": 24.87,
        "upward_expansion": 14.85,
        "deceleration": 44.68,
        "rotation_down": 62.17,
        "downward_expansion": 88.19
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        4.600667,
        4.810727,
        5.365952,
        6.034559
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 4.46,
    "trend_reference": 6.891667,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.352842,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 7.236795,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.383705,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -40.915865,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.501119,
    "excess_performance": -0.44407,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.352842,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.134865,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.383705,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.240039,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.409159,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.182069,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.501119,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.139356,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 50254800,
      "relative_activity": 1.390108,
      "balance": 0.139356,
      "dry_up": 1.349681,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 7
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.104001,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.448135,
      "from_high_reference": -0.576448,
      "from_low_reference": 0.022936
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 6.891667,
      "fair_value_reference": 7.236795,
      "structural_low": 4.36,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 34,
        "median_return": 0.015275,
        "positive_rate": 0.529412,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.441176,
        "median_excess_return": 0.010719,
        "regime_survival": 0.823529,
        "best_return": 0.224731,
        "worst_return": -0.25653,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": -0.049801,
        "positive_rate": 0.454545,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.545455,
        "median_excess_return": -0.042568,
        "regime_survival": 0.545455,
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        "worst_return": -0.233417,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": -0.099035,
        "positive_rate": 0.285714,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
        "median_excess_return": -0.108746,
        "regime_survival": 0.571429,
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        "worst_return": -0.328918,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.059799,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.035514,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
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        "worst_return": -0.395379,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2024-08-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.024691,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2024-10-11",
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        "return": -0.022576,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.109562,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.031097,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
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        "active": false
      },
      {
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      },
      {
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      {
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      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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      },
      {
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        "modifier": "Established contraction",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 4.46,
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        "fair_value": 7.352436,
        "relative_strength": -42.459079,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Established contraction",
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        "direction": -82.074299,
        "energy": 74.464124,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 4.74,
        "volume": 42419100,
        "typical_volume": 35813420.0,
        "trend": 7.015333,
        "fair_value": 7.293462,
        "relative_strength": -39.721987,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -65.071485,
        "energy": 72.081715,
        "activity_lines": [
          4.735333,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 4.46,
        "volume": 50254800,
        "typical_volume": 36151735.0,
        "trend": 6.891667,
        "fair_value": 7.236795,
        "relative_strength": -40.915865,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -73.854769,
        "energy": 74.866032,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}