{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e017272d-6f22-4cfc-a50d-edfc06c0154f", "symbol": "ETC", "name": "Energy Solar Tech, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.054, "architecture_energy": 87.901, "architecture_maturity": 46.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.928, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.16, "rotation_up": 8.17, "upward_expansion": 21.94, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 80.86, "downward_expansion": 97.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.448, 1.687, 1.971357, 2.104914 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.5, "trend_reference": 2.271167, "distance_from_trend": -0.339546, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.118365, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.518979, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -46.945222, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.4, "excess_performance": -0.524431, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.339546, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098743, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.518979, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.187859, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.469452, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.281784, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.4, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.444325, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 40327, "relative_activity": 0.621956, "balance": 0.444325, "dry_up": 1.703469, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.174103, "annualized_volatility": 0.538713, "from_high_reference": -0.52381, "from_low_reference": 0.140684 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.271167, "fair_value_reference": 3.118365, "structural_low": 1.315, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.045045, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.078937, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.420561, "worst_return": -0.224066, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.09009, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.101564, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.172794, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.029046, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.181291, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.007353, "worst_return": -0.183183, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -91.702009, "energy": 95.966133, "activity_lines": [ 1.644, 1.924909, 2.127, 2.225097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.315, "volume": 39079, "typical_volume": 81658.6, "trend": 2.3125, "fair_value": 3.148814, "relative_strength": -53.148991, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.570105, "energy": 93.931101, "activity_lines": [ 1.487, 1.781273, 2.037952, 2.157333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.5, "volume": 40327, "typical_volume": 64839.0, "trend": 2.271167, "fair_value": 3.118365, "relative_strength": -46.945222, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.054153, "energy": 87.900633, "activity_lines": [ 1.448, 1.687, 1.971357, 2.104914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }