{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e017a975-fcbb-4bcb-929d-e19cf8e29343", "symbol": "XLPS", "name": "Invesco Consumer Staples S&P US Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 82.9, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 44.331, "architecture_energy": 23.892, "architecture_maturity": 30.812, "architecture_confidence": 43.15, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.5, "rotation_up": 38.1, "upward_expansion": 67.86, "deceleration": 70.03, "rotation_down": 19.87, "downward_expansion": 1.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 660.793339, 660.650917, 656.921005, 655.107894 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 656.210022, "trend_reference": 652.292332, "distance_from_trend": 0.006006, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 606.21536, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.08247, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.817088, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.013752, "excess_performance": -0.184644, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006006, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034169, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.08247, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009916, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.108171, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030996, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.013752, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.007194, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1018, "relative_activity": 0.621433, "balance": 1.007194, "dry_up": 0.878125, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0309, "annualized_volatility": 0.154645, "from_high_reference": -0.06401, "from_low_reference": 0.132021 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 652.292332, "fair_value_reference": 606.21536, "structural_low": 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"relative_strength": -10.817088, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.331072, "energy": 23.892453, "activity_lines": [ 660.793339, 660.650917, 656.921005, 655.107894 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }