{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e020c05f-9c8e-44b7-a491-6f661eedf6ab", "symbol": "MXG", "name": "Maxim Power Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.271, "architecture_energy": 54.095, "architecture_maturity": 18.759, "architecture_confidence": 91.723, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.81, "rotation_up": 14.15, "upward_expansion": 10.04, "deceleration": 40.93, "rotation_down": 62.3, "downward_expansion": 83.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.166667, 4.213455, 4.275286, 4.315462 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.1, "trend_reference": 4.359333, "distance_from_trend": -0.059489, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.312008, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.049167, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.702056, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.048724, "excess_performance": -0.169145, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.059489, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012609, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.049167, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077307, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.177021, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048878, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.048724, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.485892, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17000, "relative_activity": 0.397707, "balance": 0.485892, "dry_up": 0.959761, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044653, "annualized_volatility": 0.129134, "from_high_reference": -0.149378, "from_low_reference": 0.025 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.359333, "fair_value_reference": 4.312008, "structural_low": 4.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.017048, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.003202, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.290909, "worst_return": -0.039443, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.19018, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.133193, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.382835, "worst_return": -0.081395, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.158568, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.021042, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.367302, "worst_return": -0.057471, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "red", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.006977, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.078471, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.089069, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.155039, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026247, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.148338, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.038202, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011186, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.051225, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048724, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.494856, "volume": 121700, "typical_volume": 39915.0, "trend": 3.884991, "fair_value": 2.989266, "relative_strength": 24.041426, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.328214, "energy": 39.945761, "activity_lines": [ 4.282, 4.300364, 4.345714, 4.369247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.3, "volume": 70000, "typical_volume": 42215.0, "trend": 4.393, "fair_value": 4.316983, "relative_strength": -12.990841, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.109992, "energy": 29.100212, "activity_lines": [ 4.282667, 4.296727, 4.337857, 4.362989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.14, "volume": 59700, "typical_volume": 44600.0, "trend": 4.381333, "fair_value": 4.314708, "relative_strength": -15.901807, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.414969, "energy": 43.915182, "activity_lines": [ 4.236667, 4.266, 4.31581, 4.346667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.17, "volume": 17400, "typical_volume": 45065.0, "trend": 4.372333, "fair_value": 4.312741, "relative_strength": -14.277267, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.631677, "energy": 40.343348, "activity_lines": [ 4.208667, 4.244, 4.29819, 4.333032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.1, "volume": 17000, "typical_volume": 42745.0, "trend": 4.359333, "fair_value": 4.312008, "relative_strength": -17.702056, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.271018, "energy": 54.094823, "activity_lines": [ 4.166667, 4.213455, 4.275286, 4.315462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }