{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e020f277-5285-47ea-9ec7-ab16ef683577", "symbol": "SRE", "name": "Sempra Energy", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 70.655, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -43.841, "architecture_energy": 47.009, "architecture_maturity": 32.577, "architecture_confidence": 70.081, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.48, "rotation_up": 23.49, "upward_expansion": 20.76, "deceleration": 40.08, "rotation_down": 57.81, "downward_expansion": 50.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 88.749333, 90.474412, 91.056827, 91.485753 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 83.88, "trend_reference": 91.393747, "distance_from_trend": -0.082213, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 77.693445, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.079628, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.272802, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.022597, "excess_performance": -0.148222, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.082213, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00885, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.079628, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117636, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.162728, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109199, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.022597, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.711383, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27061678, "relative_activity": 1.565373, "balance": 0.711383, "dry_up": 0.972157, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051161, "annualized_volatility": 0.242208, "from_high_reference": -0.160715, "from_low_reference": 0.096953 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 91.393747, "fair_value_reference": 77.693445, "structural_low": 83.65, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.002432, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.004074, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.06567, "worst_return": -0.109554, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.016312, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.048323, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.088366, "worst_return": -0.066037, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.047316, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.050389, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.209555, "worst_return": -0.106294, 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"2026-07-24", "close": 92.98, "volume": 13087714, "typical_volume": 17111613.35, "trend": 91.492126, "fair_value": 77.41991, "relative_strength": -3.251326, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.335899, "energy": 25.05116, "activity_lines": [ 93.126, 92.464078, 92.251372, 92.16758 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 88.55, "volume": 14208124, "typical_volume": 16961385.65, "trend": 91.506198, "fair_value": 77.575147, "relative_strength": -8.738977, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.303668, "energy": 3.67439, "activity_lines": [ 91.525333, 91.864312, 91.864855, 91.977765 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 83.88, "volume": 27061678, "typical_volume": 17287687.1, "trend": 91.393747, "fair_value": 77.693445, "relative_strength": -16.272802, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.841136, "energy": 47.009083, "activity_lines": [ 88.749333, 90.474412, 91.056827, 91.485753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }