{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e026c52b-051d-4619-a70e-cb5616772ec8", "symbol": "E9L", "name": "Joyas International Holdings Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 78.3, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -15.694, "architecture_energy": 24.004, "architecture_maturity": 9.0, "architecture_confidence": 78.177, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.14, "rotation_up": 27.95, "upward_expansion": 12.9, "deceleration": 49.04, "rotation_down": 32.36, "downward_expansion": 32.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.002, 0.002, 0.0022, 0.002204 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.002, "trend_reference": 0.002133, "distance_from_trend": -0.0625, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.001776, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.126354, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.371348, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.154835, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.0625, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015873, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.126354, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.653114, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.173713, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.669737, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.224638, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.224638, "dry_up": 0.004999, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.192308, "annualized_volatility": 3.0938, "from_high_reference": -0.6, "from_low_reference": 1.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.002133, "fair_value_reference": 0.001776, "structural_low": 0.001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.083333, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.084016, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.120161, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.119837, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.5, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.351348, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 1.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 1.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.6, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.001, "volume": 688000, "typical_volume": 363180.0, "trend": 0.001633, "fair_value": 0.002968, "relative_strength": -44.088659, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.835777, "energy": 34.044568, "activity_lines": [ 0.001267, 0.001164, 0.00129, 0.001437 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 0.002, "volume": 16200, "typical_volume": 263975.0, "trend": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 0.002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 10061530.0, "trend": 0.002167, "fair_value": 0.001769, "relative_strength": -16.674961, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.156779, "energy": 22.670227, "activity_lines": [ 0.002, 0.002036, 0.002257, 0.002226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.002, "volume": 200000, "typical_volume": 10071530.0, "trend": 0.002167, "fair_value": 0.001776, "relative_strength": -16.799566, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.344799, "energy": 25.959645, "activity_lines": [ 0.002, 0.002018, 0.002229, 0.002215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 10051515.0, "trend": 0.002133, "fair_value": 0.001776, "relative_strength": -17.371348, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.694295, "energy": 24.003813, "activity_lines": [ 0.002, 0.002, 0.0022, 0.002204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }