{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e0289ea1-1908-4a7a-8f99-6f9e92dc28dd", "symbol": "SRICHA", "name": "Sriracha Construction Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.793, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.752, "architecture_energy": 31.0, "architecture_maturity": 72.235, "architecture_confidence": 87.749, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.37, "rotation_up": 40.37, "upward_expansion": 67.85, "deceleration": 87.92, "rotation_down": 27.9, "downward_expansion": 12.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.94, 17.890909, 17.753374, 16.674964 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 19.1, "trend_reference": 14.913454, "distance_from_trend": 0.280723, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.884515, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.42247, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 38.941762, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.944174, "excess_performance": 0.751849, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.280723, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.252736, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.42247, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.495612, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.389418, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.482232, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.944174, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.084773, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6940700, "relative_activity": 1.571544, "balance": 1.084773, "dry_up": 1.158438, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102753, "annualized_volatility": 0.565338, "from_high_reference": -0.136169, "from_low_reference": 1.656635 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.913454, "fair_value_reference": 7.884515, "structural_low": 9.824224, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.05291, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.024781, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.135678, "worst_return": -0.193333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.025917, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.077576, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.195767, "worst_return": -0.280702, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.139925, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.240141, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.529456, "worst_return": -0.206291, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.096491, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.233058, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.274194, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.160256, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 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17.308644, 15.96186 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.0, "volume": 4146900, "typical_volume": 4152245.0, "trend": 14.272908, "fair_value": 7.715071, "relative_strength": 24.491684, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.506025, "energy": 22.955699, "activity_lines": [ 17.4, 17.604746, 17.392609, 16.155154 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.799999, "volume": 3439100, "typical_volume": 4261675.0, "trend": 14.570026, "fair_value": 7.795627, "relative_strength": 30.364093, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.877084, "energy": 20.285527, "activity_lines": [ 17.453333, 17.618182, 17.525399, 16.382708 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.1, "volume": 6940700, "typical_volume": 4416485.0, "trend": 14.913454, "fair_value": 7.884515, "relative_strength": 38.941762, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.752467, "energy": 30.999529, "activity_lines": [ 17.94, 17.890909, 17.753374, 16.674964 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }