{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e02bbf3e-7961-4941-817f-69ac5cbb740f", "symbol": "WULF", "name": "Terawulf Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 71.947, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.13, "architecture_energy": 33.283, "architecture_maturity": 42.128, "architecture_confidence": 61.476, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.1, "rotation_up": 14.27, "upward_expansion": 16.45, "deceleration": 61.93, "rotation_down": 66.05, "downward_expansion": 43.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.980667, 20.157091, 21.511619, 20.592323 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 17.08, "trend_reference": 19.023667, "distance_from_trend": -0.102171, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.751383, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.203478, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.717785, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.195241, "excess_performance": 0.007788, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.102171, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.184046, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.203478, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.643741, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.057178, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.763283, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.195241, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.846768, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 160616614, "relative_activity": 1.044375, "balance": 0.846768, "dry_up": 1.105384, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.253648, "annualized_volatility": 0.734323, "from_high_reference": -0.427614, "from_low_reference": 2.40239 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.023667, "fair_value_reference": 7.751383, "structural_low": 13.02, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.162246, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.122296, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.984962, "worst_return": -0.271768, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.031222, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.013195, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.781638, "worst_return": -0.581994, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.37594, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.266548, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.841889, "worst_return": -0.916944, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 1.225806, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 1.003649, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.323308, "worst_return": -0.955774, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051064, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 1.010256, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.087846, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.583127, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.108065, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.217042, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.20098, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.359375, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.308458, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02863, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.25864, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.07608, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.754792, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059471, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.97, "volume": 32251189, "typical_volume": 22420068.5, "trend": 1.58942, "fair_value": 7.267956, "relative_strength": 29.666844, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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"direction": 42.74247, "energy": 28.804337, "activity_lines": [ 23.738667, 24.271091, 22.658429, 20.790817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.16, "volume": 189597375, "typical_volume": 151012544.0, "trend": 18.503333, "fair_value": 7.465486, "relative_strength": 8.370939, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.576415, "energy": 18.020017, "activity_lines": [ 21.524, 23.170909, 22.423905, 20.780796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.46, "volume": 145099511, "typical_volume": 151059955.25, "trend": 18.727, "fair_value": 7.561896, "relative_strength": 10.378988, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.73114, "energy": 22.256743, "activity_lines": [ 19.936, 22.220364, 22.208714, 20.778 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.66, "volume": 184683702, "typical_volume": 153467771.35, "trend": 18.891, "fair_value": 7.658242, "relative_strength": 3.6288, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.675178, "energy": 29.350611, "activity_lines": [ 18.782667, 21.194545, 21.894905, 20.709161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.08, "volume": 160616614, "typical_volume": 153792095.95, "trend": 19.023667, "fair_value": 7.751383, "relative_strength": -5.717785, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.129665, "energy": 33.282504, "activity_lines": [ 17.980667, 20.157091, 21.511619, 20.592323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }