{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e031fd37-ce36-40a0-883a-eaf2c5d4acfe", "symbol": "ARDYZ", "name": "Ard Grup Bilisim Teknolojileri Anonim Sirketi", "exchange": "IST", "country": "TR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "benchmark": "XU100.IS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.451, "architecture_energy": 70.192, "architecture_maturity": 60.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.592, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.19, "rotation_up": 71.77, "upward_expansion": 87.03, "deceleration": 54.06, "rotation_down": 13.67, "downward_expansion": 13.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 86.036666, 82.815455, 74.580001, 68.024474 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 80.449997, "trend_reference": 59.351001, "distance_from_trend": 0.355495, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.656585, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.081146, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 52.117731, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.956469, "excess_performance": 0.851496, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.355495, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.277474, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.081146, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.347351, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.521177, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.144806, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.956469, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.24143, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15924599, "relative_activity": 1.088621, "balance": 1.24143, "dry_up": 1.836574, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086246, "annualized_volatility": 0.473227, "from_high_reference": -0.178243, "from_low_reference": 2.29846 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 59.351001, "fair_value_reference": 38.656585, "structural_low": 38.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.005018, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": -0.017361, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.535433, "worst_return": -0.470588, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.087255, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.070251, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.99556, "worst_return": -0.379578, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.050181, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.276191, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 2.335908, "worst_return": -0.339623, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"energy": 98.071564, "activity_lines": [ 83.946668, 76.399092, 68.567525, 62.493807 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 90.0, "volume": 24183583, "typical_volume": 14355721.1, "trend": 56.833001, "fair_value": 37.845957, "relative_strength": 74.319277, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.195868, "energy": 91.579774, "activity_lines": [ 87.386668, 79.946365, 71.232334, 64.725657 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 85.75, "volume": 25621870, "typical_volume": 14853569.15, "trend": 58.235334, "fair_value": 38.270304, "relative_strength": 70.179418, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.330388, "energy": 87.737251, "activity_lines": [ 88.043334, 82.129092, 73.262287, 66.59127 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 80.449997, "volume": 15924599, "typical_volume": 14628233.15, "trend": 59.351001, "fair_value": 38.656585, "relative_strength": 52.117731, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.451107, "energy": 70.192285, "activity_lines": [ 86.036666, 82.815455, 74.580001, 68.024474 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }