{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e03d6128-2afe-4946-86ca-85e5c1be5d85", "symbol": "300142", "name": "Walvax Biotechnology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.909, "architecture_energy": 14.552, "architecture_maturity": 23.898, "architecture_confidence": 64.26, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.81, "rotation_up": 42.71, "upward_expansion": 63.2, "deceleration": 72.28, "rotation_down": 22.89, "downward_expansion": 15.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.636, 12.553972, 12.588811, 12.541993 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 13.14, "trend_reference": 12.478055, "distance_from_trend": 0.053049, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.330356, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.083065, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.60214, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.04038, "excess_performance": 0.03298, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.053049, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01613, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.083065, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070495, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.036021, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.130779, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.04038, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.768324, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 327182896, "relative_activity": 1.151983, "balance": 0.768324, "dry_up": 1.375795, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107144, "annualized_volatility": 0.3875, "from_high_reference": -0.182223, "from_low_reference": 0.210899 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.478055, "fair_value_reference": 14.330356, "structural_low": 11.058478, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.007366, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.03296, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.148141, "worst_return": -0.122473, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.069423, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.135957, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.015186, "worst_return": -0.193738, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.275034, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.212399, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.014038, "worst_return": -0.325571, "sufficient": false }, { 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"balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.256647, "energy": 13.929115, "activity_lines": [ 12.559333, 12.431972, 12.55216, 12.497512 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.32, "volume": 262392154, "typical_volume": 277728955.1, "trend": 12.402767, "fair_value": 14.417173, "relative_strength": 1.880012, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.075221, "energy": 10.844243, "activity_lines": [ 12.482667, 12.406404, 12.532057, 12.494429 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.14, "volume": 327182896, "typical_volume": 284017107.25, "trend": 12.478055, "fair_value": 14.330356, "relative_strength": 3.60214, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.90889, "energy": 14.551749, "activity_lines": [ 12.636, 12.553972, 12.588811, 12.541993 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }