{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e043a309-075b-452d-8ae0-0ccd609576a9", "symbol": "TOP", "name": "Thorney Opportunities Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 81.986, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 10.548, "architecture_energy": 36.533, "architecture_maturity": 6.028, "architecture_confidence": 45.685, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.99, "rotation_up": 51.8, "upward_expansion": 44.03, "deceleration": 23.9, "rotation_down": 14.38, "downward_expansion": 47.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.565333, 0.556455, 0.546524, 0.551644 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.57, "trend_reference": 0.569801, "distance_from_trend": 0.00035, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.5742, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.007315, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.97412, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.126849, "excess_performance": -0.190555, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00035, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059547, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.007315, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063148, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.109741, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05092, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.126849, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.742508, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 193623, "relative_activity": 0.599712, "balance": 1.742508, "dry_up": 0.627706, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033738, "annualized_volatility": 0.208673, "from_high_reference": -0.170507, "from_low_reference": 0.163265 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.569801, "fair_value_reference": 0.5742, "structural_low": 0.49, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.011364, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.007729, "regime_survival": 0.357143, "best_return": 0.125, "worst_return": -0.062671, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.013392, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.014216, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.104542, "worst_return": -0.212841, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.026858, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.030378, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.422504, "worst_return": -0.144496, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.015749, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043288, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076924, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031746, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.070555, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.014599, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022727, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030303, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.056473, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017857, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.433556, "volume": 158251, "typical_volume": 296615.0, "trend": 0.454927, "fair_value": 0.441912, "relative_strength": -4.663714, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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0.565, "volume": 472409, "typical_volume": 371712.25, "trend": 0.578906, "fair_value": 0.571556, "relative_strength": -7.791473, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.79991, "energy": 12.508227, "activity_lines": [ 0.550333, 0.544, 0.539185, 0.553404 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.56, "volume": 32906, "typical_volume": 362852.35, "trend": 0.575649, "fair_value": 0.572339, "relative_strength": -8.147668, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.517438, "energy": 16.889973, "activity_lines": [ 0.554667, 0.547182, 0.540833, 0.552184 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.57, "volume": 111706, "typical_volume": 338343.75, "trend": 0.572725, "fair_value": 0.573354, "relative_strength": -8.379987, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 10.810675, "energy": 28.685126, "activity_lines": [ 0.561, 0.552, 0.543619, 0.55182 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.57, "volume": 193623, "typical_volume": 322859.95, "trend": 0.569801, "fair_value": 0.5742, "relative_strength": -10.97412, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 10.548209, "energy": 36.53321, "activity_lines": [ 0.565333, 0.556455, 0.546524, 0.551644 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }