{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e044db79-12d3-4808-8809-dd1ad7eefec9", "symbol": "TRAD3", "name": "TC S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.2, "architecture_energy": 63.519, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.02, "rotation_up": 28.6, "upward_expansion": 11.56, "deceleration": 59.6, "rotation_down": 59.99, "downward_expansion": 89.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.040667, 1.083636, 1.278381, 1.53314 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.01, "trend_reference": 1.949667, "distance_from_trend": -0.481963, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.153974, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.804035, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -72.32435, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.664452, "excess_performance": -0.607403, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.481963, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.357394, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.804035, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081688, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.723243, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009512, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.664452, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.487225, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 89900, "relative_activity": 0.857088, "balance": 0.487225, "dry_up": 0.524359, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.230008, "annualized_volatility": 0.666247, "from_high_reference": -0.886389, "from_low_reference": 0.052083 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.949667, "fair_value_reference": 5.153974, "structural_low": 0.96, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.086902, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.730769, "median_excess_return": -0.121914, "regime_survival": 0.884615, "best_return": 0.72, "worst_return": -0.372549, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.28125, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.3291, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.5, "worst_return": -0.479263, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.107478, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.187121, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.580797, "worst_return": -0.581888, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.310204, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.1968, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.18665, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.153971, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.442308, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", 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-73.746248, "energy": 67.905726, "activity_lines": [ 1.146667, 1.232364, 1.51719, 1.830323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.03, "volume": 36200, "typical_volume": 108195.0, "trend": 2.241333, "fair_value": 5.331795, "relative_strength": -75.148477, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.652064, "energy": 67.9509, "activity_lines": [ 1.096667, 1.174364, 1.446857, 1.745785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.07, "volume": 49800, "typical_volume": 102865.0, "trend": 2.142667, "fair_value": 5.271346, "relative_strength": -73.179812, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.36359, "energy": 64.840741, "activity_lines": [ 1.076667, 1.134545, 1.387143, 1.670215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.05, "volume": 44100, "typical_volume": 102090.0, "trend": 2.042, "fair_value": 5.210769, "relative_strength": -73.267302, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.36104, "energy": 63.59839, "activity_lines": [ 1.062, 1.108727, 1.331857, 1.59972 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.01, "volume": 89900, "typical_volume": 104890.0, "trend": 1.949667, "fair_value": 5.153974, "relative_strength": -72.32435, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.199853, "energy": 63.518583, "activity_lines": [ 1.040667, 1.083636, 1.278381, 1.53314 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }