{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e047f21a-1186-423f-bd1b-b0ecadadc6f9", "symbol": "MBSF", "name": "VALUED ADVISERS TRUST REGAN FLTG RATE MBS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 52.415, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.078, "architecture_energy": 20.118, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 60.994, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.04, "rotation_up": 44.28, "upward_expansion": 74.31, "deceleration": 59.81, "rotation_down": 19.38, "downward_expansion": 0.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.624365, 25.61496, 25.574034, 25.538596 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 25.6111, "trend_reference": 25.48363, "distance_from_trend": 0.005002, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.328457, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.052722, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.674559, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.011545, "excess_performance": -0.11408, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005002, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006712, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.052722, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000633, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.096746, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003299, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.011545, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.958941, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 387975, "relative_activity": 1.275215, "balance": 0.958941, "dry_up": 0.983528, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018714, "annualized_volatility": 0.017137, "from_high_reference": -0.09746, "from_low_reference": 0.043312 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.48363, "fair_value_reference": 24.328457, "structural_low": 24.845691, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.003533, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.011693, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.005668, "worst_return": -0.001502, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.011305, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.051024, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.014145, "worst_return": 0.0076, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.02561, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.019149, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.02561, "worst_return": 0.02561, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -5.981843, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.332874, "energy": 25.84686, "activity_lines": [ 25.618662, 25.602462, 25.556111, 25.518694 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.6266, "volume": 268449, "typical_volume": 292164.75, "trend": 25.470685, "fair_value": 24.318358, "relative_strength": -6.732833, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.109756, "energy": 23.318214, "activity_lines": [ 25.626069, 25.612038, 25.566233, 25.529537 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.6111, "volume": 387975, "typical_volume": 304242.7, "trend": 25.48363, "fair_value": 24.328457, "relative_strength": -9.674559, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.07784, "energy": 20.117747, "activity_lines": [ 25.624365, 25.61496, 25.574034, 25.538596 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }