{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e048f538-7feb-41e7-93f9-74bd85ac2c2b", "symbol": "BCT", "name": "BriaCell Therapeutics Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.183, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -11.881, "architecture_energy": 10.938, "architecture_maturity": 24.36, "architecture_confidence": 55.327, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.06, "rotation_up": 35.73, "upward_expansion": 29.37, "deceleration": 43.3, "rotation_down": 21.38, "downward_expansion": 46.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.054667, 4.891091, 4.872762, 5.01357 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.07, "trend_reference": 5.22, "distance_from_trend": -0.028736, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 272.527985, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.981396, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -49.484562, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.110526, "excess_performance": -0.230948, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028736, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.339073, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.981396, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003369, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.494846, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.194215, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.110526, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.803187, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20400, "relative_activity": 0.452228, "balance": 0.803187, "dry_up": 0.445023, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.14277, "annualized_volatility": 0.765401, "from_high_reference": -0.751471, "from_low_reference": 0.352 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.22, "fair_value_reference": 272.527985, "structural_low": 3.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.040595, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": -0.022323, "regime_survival": 0.307692, "best_return": 0.423794, "worst_return": -0.337349, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.082126, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.078741, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.554517, "worst_return": -0.525, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.044131, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.112146, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.179128, "worst_return": -0.596667, "sufficient": true }, 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-07-28", "end": "2023-08-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.07117, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-08-11", "end": "2023-08-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013948, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-08-25", "end": "2023-09-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.170048, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-09-22", "end": "2023-10-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.08525, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.827637, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.225, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.820339, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.123743, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.646521, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051867, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1404.856323, "volume": 135, "typical_volume": 192.6, "trend": 1344.995052, "fair_value": 1186.608985, "relative_strength": 9.136897, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.256223, "energy": 21.444954, "activity_lines": [ 4.744667, 4.602727, 4.88781, 5.175871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.26, "volume": 31900, "typical_volume": 55225.0, "trend": 5.758667, "fair_value": 297.676302, "relative_strength": -48.476179, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.188188, "energy": 18.04643, "activity_lines": [ 5.005333, 4.715818, 4.903238, 5.128108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.03, "volume": 14100, "typical_volume": 53130.0, "trend": 5.551667, "fair_value": 289.808492, "relative_strength": -50.044094, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.199628, "energy": 21.199065, "activity_lines": [ 5.092, 4.795636, 4.896524, 5.081097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.82, "volume": 13900, "typical_volume": 49375.0, "trend": 5.385, "fair_value": 281.377089, "relative_strength": -51.128667, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.290956, "energy": 20.501434, "activity_lines": [ 5.047333, 4.820909, 4.870476, 5.033892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.07, "volume": 20400, "typical_volume": 45110.0, "trend": 5.22, "fair_value": 272.527985, "relative_strength": -49.484562, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.880905, "energy": 10.937533, "activity_lines": [ 5.054667, 4.891091, 4.872762, 5.01357 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }