{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e04dcff4-03d9-4fe4-8745-90c7c4332f65", "symbol": "SFQ", "name": "SAF-Holland SE", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-04", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.894, "architecture_energy": 77.935, "architecture_maturity": 47.46, "architecture_confidence": 89.126, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.56, "rotation_up": 76.33, "upward_expansion": 95.16, "deceleration": 42.46, "rotation_down": 14.58, "downward_expansion": 17.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.346666, 21.856909, 21.10541, 20.299684 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 22.6, "trend_reference": 19.345273, "distance_from_trend": 0.168244, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.463875, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.461471, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 22.956962, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.311254, "excess_performance": 0.207173, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.168244, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.112906, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.461471, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080739, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.22957, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003738, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.311254, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.661869, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 602621, "relative_activity": 2.665297, "balance": 2.661869, "dry_up": 1.800224, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044248, "annualized_volatility": 0.326276, "from_high_reference": -0.017391, "from_low_reference": 0.750956 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.345273, "fair_value_reference": 15.463875, "structural_low": 15.090646, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.013292, "positive_rate": 0.535714, "directional_follow_through": 0.535714, "median_excess_return": 0.002399, "regime_survival": 0.678571, "best_return": 0.170621, "worst_return": -0.135493, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.008999, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.052014, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.22345, "worst_return": -0.459449, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.088393, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.056842, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.450932, "worst_return": -0.470308, "sufficient": true }, { 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"date": "2026-08-14", "close": 21.5, "volume": 300644, "typical_volume": 218115.35, "trend": 18.78252, "fair_value": 15.220544, "relative_strength": 17.375336, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.14485, "energy": 75.775043, "activity_lines": [ 21.38, 20.953455, 20.326218, 19.606374 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 22.799999, "volume": 427831, "typical_volume": 218777.2, "trend": 18.987328, "fair_value": 15.303243, "relative_strength": 25.087571, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.257645, "energy": 86.099376, "activity_lines": [ 21.92, 21.339454, 20.637556, 19.865566 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 22.299999, "volume": 297019, "typical_volume": 212793.1, "trend": 19.183843, "fair_value": 15.382625, "relative_strength": 19.702282, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.175317, "energy": 84.150335, "activity_lines": [ 22.129999, 21.594545, 20.869072, 20.079287 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 22.6, "volume": 602621, "typical_volume": 226099.0, "trend": 19.345273, "fair_value": 15.463875, "relative_strength": 22.956962, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.894338, "energy": 77.935477, "activity_lines": [ 22.346666, 21.856909, 21.10541, 20.299684 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }