{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e057f9f8-f1bc-418d-8e96-82286eebbc17", "symbol": "VMC", "name": "Vulcan Materials Company", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 64.959, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -28.063, "architecture_energy": 23.522, "architecture_maturity": 17.4, "architecture_confidence": 68.943, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.14, "rotation_up": 8.55, "upward_expansion": 16.15, "deceleration": 67.28, "rotation_down": 57.39, "downward_expansion": 60.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 280.582667, 287.556909, 286.835366, 286.45439 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 284.69, "trend_reference": 289.060041, "distance_from_trend": -0.015118, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 260.465353, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.093005, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.878041, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.117142, "excess_performance": -0.242767, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.015118, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002355, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.093005, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02126, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.12878, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00895, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.117142, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.69245, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5667103, "relative_activity": 1.016185, "balance": 0.69245, "dry_up": 0.969196, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073688, "annualized_volatility": 0.329245, "from_high_reference": -0.136795, "from_low_reference": 0.130406 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 289.060041, "fair_value_reference": 260.465353, "structural_low": 251.847561, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.040781, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.017399, "regime_survival": 0.266667, "best_return": 0.143277, "worst_return": -0.048855, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.112865, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.037196, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.201554, "worst_return": -0.094895, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.10692, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.001633, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.222254, "worst_return": 0.069266, "sufficient": 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[ 301.014, 293.617974, 288.292634, 289.141163 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 288.33, "volume": 3550745, "typical_volume": 5831831.3, "trend": 291.127529, "fair_value": 259.326692, "relative_strength": -9.124672, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.708068, "energy": 26.389842, "activity_lines": [ 297.184, 293.777941, 288.635971, 288.955499 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 279.7, "volume": 4595080, "typical_volume": 5721827.55, "trend": 290.682238, "fair_value": 259.7393, "relative_strength": -11.106312, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.645693, "energy": 5.065069, "activity_lines": [ 290.353333, 292.274727, 288.254868, 288.218239 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 268.57, "volume": 7807280, "typical_volume": 5645125.55, "trend": 289.917413, "fair_value": 260.04414, "relative_strength": -15.246177, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.86939, "energy": 29.843949, "activity_lines": [ 281.355333, 288.522364, 286.786256, 286.791643 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 284.69, "volume": 5667103, "typical_volume": 5576842.9, "trend": 289.060041, "fair_value": 260.465353, "relative_strength": -12.878041, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.063215, "energy": 23.522431, "activity_lines": [ 280.582667, 287.556909, 286.835366, 286.45439 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }