{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e05822a6-8e1d-484b-9d4a-19f246b897c2", "symbol": "600239", "name": "Yunnan Metropolitan RealEstate Development Co.Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.932, "architecture_energy": 58.603, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.554, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.94, "rotation_up": 29.56, "upward_expansion": 11.51, "deceleration": 60.25, "rotation_down": 47.49, "downward_expansion": 82.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.378, 1.383636, 1.480476, 1.640989 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.39, "trend_reference": 1.863667, "distance_from_trend": -0.254158, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.378718, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.415652, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.207907, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.411017, "excess_performance": -0.367813, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.254158, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170844, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.415652, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10257, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.352079, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010827, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.411017, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.17559, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 61872125, "relative_activity": 0.701584, "balance": 0.17559, "dry_up": 0.816648, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089651, "annualized_volatility": 0.360155, "from_high_reference": -0.536667, "from_low_reference": 0.158333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.863667, "fair_value_reference": 2.378718, "structural_low": 1.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.018325, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.017543, "regime_survival": 0.884615, "best_return": 0.567568, "worst_return": -0.217391, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.115741, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.087017, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.630435, "worst_return": -0.288136, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.076527, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.124133, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.369565, "worst_return": -0.411017, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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1.44, "volume": 95489288, "typical_volume": 95702052.2, "trend": 2.0, "fair_value": 2.401731, "relative_strength": -36.861272, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.914362, "energy": 65.39361, "activity_lines": [ 1.397333, 1.431636, 1.618143, 1.789484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.4, "volume": 89754747, "typical_volume": 95221809.3, "trend": 1.967, "fair_value": 2.397372, "relative_strength": -34.069315, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.10062, "energy": 63.113993, "activity_lines": [ 1.401333, 1.418, 1.579286, 1.750774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.32, "volume": 65716723, "typical_volume": 92286989.4, "trend": 1.929, "fair_value": 2.390833, "relative_strength": -37.948078, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.234705, "energy": 62.883149, "activity_lines": [ 1.38, 1.394909, 1.537619, 1.709032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.38, "volume": 70734327, "typical_volume": 91448887.95, "trend": 1.895667, "fair_value": 2.384744, "relative_strength": -34.652113, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.931663, "energy": 57.524742, "activity_lines": [ 1.380667, 1.386909, 1.506381, 1.673613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.39, "volume": 61872125, "typical_volume": 88189181.9, "trend": 1.863667, "fair_value": 2.378718, "relative_strength": -35.207907, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.93231, "energy": 58.602904, "activity_lines": [ 1.378, 1.383636, 1.480476, 1.640989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }