{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e062271c-a2e5-4a66-a32c-020b7c50d123", "symbol": "002627", "name": "Hubei Three Gorges Tourism Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.477, "architecture_energy": 38.886, "architecture_maturity": 75.75, "architecture_confidence": 93.07, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.73, "rotation_up": 27.24, "upward_expansion": 18.08, "deceleration": 46.71, "rotation_down": 42.49, "downward_expansion": 70.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.142667, 6.053307, 6.378758, 6.842459 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.49, "trend_reference": 7.446847, "distance_from_trend": -0.12849, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.679173, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.142772, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.246923, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.297619, "excess_performance": -0.305019, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.12849, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028049, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.142772, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150394, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.102469, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018495, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.297619, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.698872, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 63035111, "relative_activity": 0.879135, "balance": 0.698872, "dry_up": 0.955509, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087473, "annualized_volatility": 0.408234, "from_high_reference": -0.369291, "from_low_reference": 0.204082 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.446847, "fair_value_reference": 5.679173, "structural_low": 5.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.003656, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": 0.018254, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.108407, "worst_return": -0.085346, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.054318, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.076281, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.202925, "worst_return": -0.043282, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.057083, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.124948, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.080439, "worst_return": 0.011342, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.228821, "energy": 79.840917, "activity_lines": [ 5.702667, 5.961265, 6.470762, 6.975084 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.44, "volume": 94176850, "typical_volume": 73557721.2, "trend": 7.477847, "fair_value": 5.671706, "relative_strength": -6.287867, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.680524, "energy": 54.46259, "activity_lines": [ 5.937333, 6.001218, 6.415594, 6.906191 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.49, "volume": 63035111, "typical_volume": 71701281.8, "trend": 7.446847, "fair_value": 5.679173, "relative_strength": -10.246923, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.476841, "energy": 38.886202, "activity_lines": [ 6.142667, 6.053307, 6.378758, 6.842459 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }